If Bernie Does Not Win Primary, Will His Campaign Work to Defeat the Democratic Nominee?

[TexasTowelie]

77. Yet, he is rarely at the top of any of the polls.

His entire strategy relies upon having a brokered convention and hoping that all of Warren's delegates will choose him as the alternative choice on a second ballot. He may get some of her delegates, but there will also be plenty going to Biden too. The superdelegates are also far more likely to vote for Biden over Bernie if it gets to a second ballot. Even if Warren were to release her delegates in the first round of balloting, there isn't any guarantee that all of them will vote for Bernie and I suspect that Biden will get some of them.

This race will be over for all practical purposes in March. 38% of the delegates will be selected by Super Tuesday, while 65% will be selected by the end of March. I suspect that Biden will have a large enough lead that it will be impossible for any of the other candidates to catch up with him.

Winning the states that don't have many delegates won't help Bernie much if Warren or Buttigieg also picks up their share (like it appears in Iowa and New Hampshire) and Biden also receives more than 15% of the votes so he receives his proportional allocation. Meanwhile, the polls in southern states show Biden with large leads and possibly closing out so that the other candidates are below 15% and don't receive any delegates. For example, the latest CNN poll for Texas showed Biden at 35%, Bernie at 15%, and all other candidates under 15%. That means that Biden gets 160 delegates while Bernie gets 68 delegates. However, if Bernie falls below 15%, then Biden will get all 228 delegates. A 92 delegate margin will be difficult enough for Bernie to offset, but if Biden piles up a 228 delegate margin (just in Texas) then that will be game over for ALL of the candidates and it won't matter how much money they have in their campaign funds or how much howling their supporters do about the contest being rigged.