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Drunken Irishman

(34,857 posts)
20. If it's a conspiracy against your candidate, why have they decreased each cycle since 2008?
Sat Dec 28, 2019, 05:45 PM
Dec 2019

Maybe you should look into it more instead of throwing around conspiracy theories. The reality is that polling is far harder today than it was in 2008. It doesn't take someone with an advanced degree in statistics to understand this.

In 2008, 80% of U.S. households had a landline, while only 20% used cellphones only.

Today? Only 41.7% of U.S. households have a landline - 54.9% of households are 'cellphone only':



That is a dramatic, massive decrease from 2008 - an election that was only a little over a decade ago.

Fact: polling cellphones is much harder today than it is to poll landlines.

Fact: Americans willing to participate in polls is at an all-time low.

Pew’s data suggest that decline is underway again, with response rates slipping to 7 percent in 2017 and 6 percent in 2018. What’s to blame for the recent slippage? Kennedy says it’s harder to get people to complete polls over cell phones because they are getting more calls they don’t want, which makes them less likely to talk to pollsters.

“It’s our sense that that exponential increase in robocalls, spoofing of incoming calls, pretending they’re a local number, has really changed the environment in using a cell phone,” said Kennedy.


What does this change mean? It means pollsters have to weigh their sample differently to be as accurate as possible, which also means more effort is placed into mining the results - and yes, more money:

“(W)ith the rise of cellphones and the increasing prevalence of people who decline to answer or complete surveys, how do you ensure that those you are interviewing are in fact representative of the underlying population?” Cook said. “This is not an intractable problem, but it places a premium on rigorous methodology, which can be complicated and costly.”


This article was from January, 2018 - long before Bernie announced he was running for president. And they came to the same consensus as the article you posted: it takes more money to poll today than it did a decade-plus ago because of the changing demographics. That is why there's fewer polls today than four years ago and eight years ago twelve years ago.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

Recommendations

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No idea. crazytown Dec 2019 #1
They knew Bernie would be surging in December but didn't want to promote it. n/t Uncle Joe Dec 2019 #2
Not everything that happens is an anti-Bernie conspiracy, Uncle Joe. maybe they just got tired of beastie boy Dec 2019 #7
Biden is sliding in the polls and has been for months, Uncle Joe Dec 2019 #9
He will need to do a hell of a lot more sliding before he can challenge anyone for the #2 position! beastie boy Dec 2019 #10
This just isn't true. Drunken Irishman Dec 2019 #16
Thank You DarthDem Dec 2019 #26
Please stop. sheshe2 Dec 2019 #30
That's the difference between what one considers "miraculous" and Uncle Joe Dec 2019 #33
Non answer. nt sheshe2 Dec 2019 #34
. TexasTowelie Dec 2019 #35
I was puzzled ritapria Dec 2019 #3
Not money so much as fear of being wrong judeling Dec 2019 #4
I believe December polls would prove otherwise. Uncle Joe Dec 2019 #6
National Polls sure but early state level polls are greatly dimiished. judeling Dec 2019 #11
That changes in December; only six weeks away from the vote. In 2016 they had 14 polls Uncle Joe Dec 2019 #12
See Reply 14... Drunken Irishman Dec 2019 #15
The polls weren't really wrong in 2016, the polls changed. StevieM Dec 2019 #27
all part of the massive bernie blackout lol. nt msongs Dec 2019 #5
Yes. n/t Uncle Joe Dec 2019 #8
Oh my God, they are missing yet another Bernie surge! justhanginon Dec 2019 #13
OMG i blinked & missed it onetexan Dec 2019 #31
It's not bullshit - & there's a clear trend. Polling has significantly decreased each election cycle Drunken Irishman Dec 2019 #14
I guess that's one advantage individual donors and donations have over polls, Uncle Joe Dec 2019 #17
Except the decrease aligns perfectly with the trend. Drunken Irishman Dec 2019 #18
When are polls most valuable or accurate Uncle Joe Dec 2019 #19
If it's a conspiracy against your candidate, why have they decreased each cycle since 2008? Drunken Irishman Dec 2019 #20
You never answered my question. Uncle Joe Dec 2019 #21
You never answered mine. Drunken Irishman Dec 2019 #22
You never asked a question but I did and you still haven't answered it. n/t Uncle Joe Dec 2019 #23
I did. Drunken Irishman Dec 2019 #24
The point I was getting at and to which you couldn't/wouldn't acknowledge Uncle Joe Dec 2019 #25
I guess it is possible that a slew of new polls will come out on Monday. StevieM Dec 2019 #29
Three days left in the month, Uncle Joe Dec 2019 #32
Perhaps you would like to kick in some money to finance those polls? TexasTowelie Dec 2019 #36
or perhaps feeling the spirit. n/t Uncle Joe Dec 2019 #37
Thank You it is a huge problem. judeling Dec 2019 #28
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