A Reminder: Younger voters were crucial to 'The Obama Coalition'

[Drunken Irishman]

7. There's plenty of demographics Democrats need to win.

It's not just young voters - it's also black voters and, unfortunately, it's also white voters.

Take Pennsylvania. In 2016, Hillary won 92% of black voters according to exit polls. They made up 10% of the state's voting population. Trump won 7%. In 2012, they made up 13% of the overall vote - and Obama won 93% to Romney's 6%. So, both Hillary and Trump did +1 better than Obama/Romney BUT blacks made up three-points fewer than they did four years earlier. And I know Obama being the black candidate likely meant a higher black turnout but ... what if it didn't? In 2004, blacks made up 13% of the overall votes in Pennsylvania - unchanged from 2012 AND 2008.

That three-point dip was significant, as significant as the dip in youth turnout.

Obama didn't just win the White House because of the youth vote. That certainly helped - but it was also because whites made up a smaller share of the vote in some states than they did in 2016.

Whites were 81% of the vote in Pennsylvania in 2016. In 2012, they were 78%.

What hurt Hillary was her performance among white voters.

Had she done as well as Obama did in 2012, she wins PA, MI and WI.

Just look:

In Wisconsin, Hillary lost the white vote 53-42 to Trump. In 2012, Obama lost the white vote to Romney 48-51. Trump did -2 worse than Romney there but more significantly, Hillary did -6 worse than Obama.

In Pennsylvania, Hillary lost the white vote 56-40 to Trump. In 2012, Obama lost 57-42. Not a sizable difference but still, Trump did -1 worse than Romney and Hillary -2 worse than Obama. Had Hillary lost the white vote +15 instead of +16, it's likely she ekes out a very narrow win - especially if black turnout is at 13% like it was in 2004, 2008 and 2012.

Bottom line: There's enough evidence to suggest had Hillary won this demographic over the other that she'd be president today. It's a fine line. It's not just on younger voters. The next candidate is going to have to cobble together a coalition that encompasses a lot of demographics.

Can Biden win younger voters?

Can Bernie or Elizabeth win over black voters to a level we likely need them to be at to win, say, Pennsylvania again?

It's a tough question. There isn't an Obama running this go around. That's the reality. The nominee is going to have their work cut out for them because they do have vulnerabilities that Obama seemed to lack.