The Real Battle in the Primary Race Is for Second Place [View all]

[MineralMan]

As we get closer to the early primary events, it's good to watch the polls closely. What should you look for? Look for people who are hovering around 15% in those early primary polls. Why? Because you get no delegates to the convention if you are below that percentage in the actual voting. If you get no delegates, you're out of the running.

By the time the South Carolina primary vote count is in, most of the current Democratic primary candidates will be out. They will have zero delegates at the convention, and will have no path to the nomination. It's a simple matter of numbers.

Then, when the Super Tuesday primaries are held, there's a strong likelihood that the results on March 4 will reveal just two candidates with enough delegates to continue campaigning. It could possibly be three, but it's more likely to be just two left to carry on until the convention.

Second place is what to watch. Joe Biden has held at about 30% in the national polls for some time now. He'll be going to the convention as the strongest contender, based on the early primaries. But, who will his challenger be? That's the interesting question, really.

15%. Watch that number and compare it to the primary results. That will be the threshold. By March 4, the rest of the nation's voters will be deciding which of two or three people remaining to vote for. Where will the support of all of those candidates who didn't make 15% go? Answer that question and you'll know who the Democratic nominee will be.