The Real Battle in the Primary Race Is for Second Place

[beastie boy]

10. No, really. Theoretically possible, but very unlikely.

First, brokered conventions are a rare event. All the brokering, when it is necessary, is usually done behind the scenes prior to the convention. Second, a brokered convention is highly unlikely unless there are more than two candidates running. As time goes by, the likelihood of this happening diminishes exponentially. Third, if any of the contestants at the convention don't get the aforementioned 15% in two or three states, which is pretty likely given where the candidates stand today, they are out of running for all practical purposes. They will not be in a position to get near the number of pledged delegates to challenge the front runner on the first ballot. Fourth, the delegates of the candidates who drop out of the race before the convention tend to pledge themselves to the front runner at the convention. Fifth, it is the job of the DNC to avoid a brokered convention if at all possible. The pressure of the DNC on the delegates will be in favor of the front runner as well. Sixth, the superdelegates also tend to favor the front runner.

Don't know about you, but I would feel pretty confident betting a buck on no brokered convention.

Having fun being so definitive yet?