*New* Sanders is in a first-place tie in Iowa, has a narrow edge in NH

[Sloumeau]

10. Notice that Sanders Plus Warren 27% + 18% 45%.

Also notice that Biden, Buttigieg and Klubuchar= 25% + 13% + 7% = 45%.

These means that the 2 lefties have 45% of the vote, and that the 3 more moderates have 45% of the vote, for a total of 90% of the vote. This makes perfect sense because I believe that a recent gallop poll had the number of self-identified liberals in the Democratic party at 51%. Thus, it makes sense that the liberals would take about half of the votes. Who wins this election may very well depend upon when people drop out, which I think a few people here on DU have mentioned recently.

Also, notice that these 5 candidates have sewn up 90% of the votes. I really think the game is pretty much over for anyone who is not in this top 5. Few want to vote for a billionaire like Steyer or Bloomberg. Yang and Booker just don't seem to have enough traction to ever make it to the top, and the other remaining candidates don't even seem to have a hope of making a debate.

Here are a few widely speculative What ifs:

What if, in order to lock up the nomination, Biden promised the VP slot to either Buttigieg of Klobuchar if they dropped out right away?
What if Sanders and Warren came up with a President/VP ticket arrangement and one of them dropped out?

A person dropping out at the right time could totally change this race.

Well, mainstream media, you wanted a horserace, and things like the three-way-tie in Iowa among Sanders, Biden, and Buttigieg means you are going to get your wish. The race is still on, at least for the top five.