*New* Sanders is in a first-place tie in Iowa, has a narrow edge in NH

[bluewater]

30. I hope a definitive leader emerges after Super Tuesday, and that it's Warren.

And I mean right after Super Tuesday.

Biden supporters claim it's going to happen and he will be the clear leader, some go as far to state he will mathematically clinch the nomination then (though that really isn't possible).

Sanders supporters hope that a dominating showing in IA, NH and NV will springboard him to a Super Tuesday bonanza.

Bloomberg supporters feel no one will emerge as a clear leader on Super Tuesday, but that he will become one of the top three candidates in delegate totals.

We Warren supporters hope that Biden falters and she becomes the consensus candidate that progressives and moderates rally around.

Buttigieg supporters... well, they too must be hoping Biden falters and that minority support isn't as important as it has been in the past.

Will a definitive leader emerge so soon? I really don't think so, but if one does it would have to be Biden, his support among minority Democrats will firewall him against even a strong Sanders surge.

But what about the brokered convention? hmmm? hmmm? hmmm?

I think it's very likely that no candidate can get enough delegate from the primaries to win on the first ballot.

Some people agree with that but then insist that enough candidates will drop out before or at the convention if that seems likely, giving the person with the plurality at that point (whom they insist will be Biden) the nomination on the first ballot..

I would call THAT a brokered convention, in that no candidate won enough delegates outright to win independently on the first ballot.

Could a brokered convention move onto a 2nd ballot or more?

Possibly.

If enough candidates choose not to concede and no candidate has a majority, the Super Delegates that can then vote on a 2nd ballot will simply tip the scales to the leader since they account for15% of all total delegates. That means the leading candidate will need a plurality of about 36% of the delegates from the primaries for this to happen. People feel this is the most likely outcome of any possible brokered convention.

Could two or more candidates agree to form a common front giving them more delegates than the one holding the plurality of delegates coming in? Possibly. But only if the plurality is in the very low 30% range or probably the 25-30% range.

Is this likely? No, I don't think so because I believe the next two strongest candidates won't be politically compatible. For example, a Sanders/Bloomberg coalition just won't happen.

So does that mean a Sanders/Warren coalition can not win at brokered convention at all? Well, one of them would have to be leading with a plurality of the delegates coming in to make that possible. If Biden holds that plurality, no, a Sanders/Warren coalition would simply not be strong enough.

And FINALLY...

The Super Delegates are going to vote for the candidate with the plurality of delegates entering the convention. Period. They will put immense pressure on all candidates to also get behind the person holding that plurality whether their delegates are needed or not to send the party out united.

I believe this final case will be true even if Sanders is the person holding the plurality of delegates entering the convention. The Super Delegates will do the right thing, get behind the single candidate with the most voter support and unite the party behind them.