Democratic Primaries

Demsrule86

(71,542 posts)

2. Sorry...I missed the answer...

Mon Jan 6, 2020, 07:23 PM

Jan 2020

"What Decades Of Primary Polls Tell Us About The 2020 Democratic Presidential Race

Biden remains the favorite to win the Democratic nomination. That said, his grasp on the lead is tenuous.

(snip) ... according to our analysis, someone polling around where Biden was in the second half of the year has roughly a 35 percent chance of claiming the Democratic nomination. A 1-in-3 chance isn’t great, but this is still better than, say, Bernie Sanders’s or Elizabeth Warren’s chances. They essentially tied for second, with an unadjusted polling average around 16 percent in the second half of the year, which historically has meant a 10 percent chance of winning."

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

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538: Biden has a 35% chance of winning the Democratic nomination. [View all] crazytown Jan 2020 OP

So what is Warren's chance? Demsrule86 Jan 2020 #1

Looks like 10-12% by the chart LongtimeAZDem Jan 2020 #3

Yeah...and another question: pfeiffer Jan 2020 #4

I'd need a caucusologist to confirm this Algernon Moncrieff Jan 2020 #87

Sorry...I missed the answer... Demsrule86 Jan 2020 #2

I agree, as you say, Joe's grasp on the lead is tenuous... Hillary could jump in the race tomorrow InAbLuEsTaTe Jan 2020 #7

10% to 35%...I'll take it. Warren is less than that because she may lose Iowa. Demsrule86 Jan 2020 #12

Sanders and Warren aren't going to team up in the primaries. TwilightZone Jan 2020 #13

I'm not so sure you are right. Algernon Moncrieff Jan 2020 #88

Hillary? Seriously... Demsrule86 Jan 2020 #14

If Joe's lead is tenuous bernies is non existent. Get real!! Thekaspervote Jan 2020 #16

And boomer_wv Jan 2020 #66

I wasnt suggestin Hillary WOULD jump in the race. Just that IF she did, she'd be the frontrunner... InAbLuEsTaTe Jan 2020 #70

No she wouldn't.Hillary supporters never thought Hillary should run again after 2016 Demsrule86 Jan 2020 #73

"Hillary supporters never thought Hillary should run again"? That's an interesting statement... InAbLuEsTaTe Jan 2020 #90

That nonsense...in fact you and I discussed it at length...and we both came to the conclusion that Demsrule86 Jan 2020 #92

Nonsense?! Show me where I EVER said Bernie should NOT run in 2020. That's completely untrue!! InAbLuEsTaTe Jan 2020 #94

And again boomer_wv Jan 2020 #83

LOL. The Valley Below Jan 2020 #5

Thats certainly not an overwhelming vote of confidence for a former VP whos sposedly the frontrunner InAbLuEsTaTe Jan 2020 #6

Looks like he is way ahead of your guy who has been running for four years redstateblues Jan 2020 #8

Bazinga! NurseJackie Jan 2020 #10

+1 TexasTowelie Jan 2020 #25

bwaaaaahahahahahahahahahahahahaha nt NYMinute Jan 2020 #81

He IS the frontrunner. Nothing supposed about it. Other than that, define "overwhelming". beastie boy Jan 2020 #9

You seem to have a fundamental misunderstanding of the term "front-runner" TwilightZone Jan 2020 #24

Greater than 1/3 in a multi-candidate field. RandySF Jan 2020 #35

Statisticaly, it's actually a pretty good spot at this point Bradical79 Jan 2020 #43

It is just because there are so many candidates NYMinute Jan 2020 #71

Well, if math is your friend, Biden has tanked & had to exit early in every primary he's run in... InAbLuEsTaTe Jan 2020 #72

bwaaaaahahahahahahahahahahahahaha nt NYMinute Jan 2020 #80

BUT, someone is actually 100% going to be the nominee. Hortensis Jan 2020 #11

crazytown, thank you so much for posting this! :) Sloumeau Jan 2020 #15

Biden supporters are misinterpreting this! bluewater Jan 2020 #17

I highlighted said passage, crazytown Jan 2020 #18

Added my own question... where did the missing 21% go? bluewater Jan 2020 #19

An accounting for a 2020 late entry? crazytown Jan 2020 #20

Thanks, that makes sense. bluewater Jan 2020 #21

This message was self-deleted by its author crazytown Jan 2020 #22

No, you're the one misinterpreting the article. TwilightZone Jan 2020 #23

Um, no. Consider re-reading this excerpt again... bluewater Jan 2020 #26

It's also contradicted by the past 9-10 months BannonsLiver Jan 2020 #38

538 is missing the big things? Ok...... bluewater Jan 2020 #44

Sorry, but there is something about statistics that you are missing. Sloumeau Jan 2020 #27

I'll go with 538 understanding of statistics. crazytown Jan 2020 #29

Baloney. I got A's in statistics in college and A's in calculus. Sloumeau Jan 2020 #42

I appreciated you post, crazytown Jan 2020 #49

At no point did I question 538s rigor. Sloumeau Jan 2020 #59

40% Biden, 30% Sanders and 30% Warren crazytown Jan 2020 #62

Nate said Trump couldn't win the GOP nomination. radius777 Jan 2020 #79

Statisticians are aways going by past data, crazytown Jan 2020 #86

538 says someone OTHER than Biden has a higher chance of winning. bluewater Jan 2020 #31

But he isn't really... Demsrule86 Jan 2020 #74

I consider 35 % a good number when compared to 10 -12 %. Demsrule86 Jan 2020 #84

Calculating odds at this point is stupid dansolo Jan 2020 #89

Real headline here: Biden's chances of winning nomination 3-1/2 times greater than Warren, Sanders highplainsdem Jan 2020 #28

Or maybe "the rest of the Democratic field combined has a larger chance of winning than Biden " crazytown Jan 2020 #30

THAT is the point 538 is making, the odds favor someone OTHER than Biden. bluewater Jan 2020 #32

A point that is laughably incorrect. The Valley Below Jan 2020 #52

LOL. So you think we're electing a committee? highplainsdem Jan 2020 #36

Now I suspect you understand probability theory better than that crazytown Jan 2020 #39

I understand that none of his rivals are close to having as good a chance as Biden. highplainsdem Jan 2020 #41

"And that's what matters here." bluewater Jan 2020 #46

Since all the other candidates do much worse than Biden, how is that good news for anyone who highplainsdem Jan 2020 #48

Again, people also want their LEAST favorite candidate not to win. bluewater Jan 2020 #53

I understand probability theory pretty well and the point you are making is not correct. Demsrule86 Jan 2020 #85

Yes and few, if any, of the remaining candidates align with Biden. InAbLuEsTaTe Jan 2020 #60

If it was a team sport, but it isn't. Both sanders and warren have 10 to 12 % chance individually. Demsrule86 Jan 2020 #75

538 gave Clinton a 71% chance of winning the day before the election, The Velveteen Ocelot Jan 2020 #33

Do you have a reason to suspect that was wrong? crazytown Jan 2020 #37

A lot of polls and predictions were wrong. The Velveteen Ocelot Jan 2020 #40

The polls weren't "wrong". cos dem Jan 2020 #47

OK, so maybe deceptive is the better description. The Velveteen Ocelot Jan 2020 #51

Agreed. TwilightZone Jan 2020 #65

Maybe they didn't take into account that the Russians would intervene to help Trump win. totodeinhere Jan 2020 #45

I don't recall the percentage dflprincess Jan 2020 #57

71% isn't 100%, of course. TwilightZone Jan 2020 #64

I thought Hillary was given a much higher chance of winning than that...perhaps I'm misremembering. InAbLuEsTaTe Jan 2020 #91

Thanks crazytown! Scurrilous Jan 2020 #34

Instead of obsessing over who is ahead and who has the best chance why can't we totodeinhere Jan 2020 #50

Statistics can be made to lean in any direction bucolic_frolic Jan 2020 #54

Millennials also have the most negative view of trump. crazytown Jan 2020 #56

If that motivates millennials to vote, then it's a good thing! bucolic_frolic Jan 2020 #58

The strongest card Democrats have with young idealists is Climate Change. crazytown Jan 2020 #63

And theyre more likely to vote for Bernie or Elizabeth, not Joe. Why we need a progressive candidate InAbLuEsTaTe Jan 2020 #61

Sorry no...we need to win states that neither Sanders or Warren can win. Demsrule86 Jan 2020 #76

60% of average Americans, 28 yrs or older,disagree with your statement about the use of statistics! InAbLuEsTaTe Jan 2020 #77

Statistics LakeArenal Jan 2020 #55

I'll remind you of that, crazytown Jan 2020 #68

Geez. It was a joke. Simpson quotes do not count as thoughtful dialogue. LakeArenal Jan 2020 #69

No need to overreact for all sides Hav Jan 2020 #67

The last 2 primary elections Joe lost in 1988/2008 are a good indication of how 2020 will end InAbLuEsTaTe Jan 2020 #78

Using your logic, Bernie will lose the nomination by millions redstateblues Jan 2020 #82

A good percentage are just undecided. redqueen Jan 2020 #93