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Joe BidenCongratulations to our presumptive Democratic nominee, Joe Biden!
 

Gothmog

(177,725 posts)
38. It's Bernie, not Biden, who has the electability problem
Fri Jan 10, 2020, 10:09 AM
Jan 2020



Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) has decided to attack Joe Biden, claiming that the moderate former vice president, who sits atop virtually every national poll with solid African American support, is somehow unelectable. His argument is that Biden couldn’t possibly be elected because he voted for the Iraq War nearly 20 years ago and for the North American Free Trade Agreement 27 years ago. There is no data to support that argument and, logically, one would think that running as a self-described socialist now is a much bigger electability problem than Biden’s past votes, but we do not have to speculate.

Some of Sanders’s signature, super-progressive issues play very poorly in swing states. The Kaiser Family Foundation’s Blue Wall Voices Project last year found that “large shares of swing voters in Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin say stopping detainments at the U.S. border for people cross into the country illegally and a national Medicare-for-all plan are ‘bad ideas.’ ”
Moreover, polling over the last week or so shows clearly that picking Sanders would be a gamble. While he once was leading outside the margin of error in head-to-head matchups against President Trump, he is now losing or at best within the margin of error while Biden continues to be the most viable candidate against Trump.....

Moreover, given that Democratic victories are heavily dependent on African American turnout, it is difficult to see that Sanders, who gets a fraction of the African American support that Biden does, could turn out a bigger African American vote than Biden could. (Recall that in the 2016 primary, Hillary Clinton walloped Sanders among African American voters.) In the latest Fox News South Carolina poll, Biden gets 43 percent of the African American vote, Sanders just 12 percent.

And finally, remember that in the 2018 midterms, super-progressive candidates endorsed by Sanders did not flip a single House seat from red to blue. All those House seats were flipped by Biden-type moderates.

There will be a debate next week. That might be a good moment to quiz Sanders on where his claim to superior electability comes from. So far, there is not a whole lot — if any — evidence to back up his boast.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Oh indeed!! Will be happy when sanders goes home to VT Thekaspervote Jan 2020 #1
This isn't 1972. Dennis Donovan Jan 2020 #2
It will be worse. George McGovern not only proudly wore the Democratic label, he didn't go out of still_one Jan 2020 #3
Excellent points. George II Jan 2020 #7
It will be bad, but not worse Hankee Jan 2020 #9
He didn't rule out a post for George Wallace in his administration. David__77 Jan 2020 #22
Yes unity...and who are the candidates promoting that??? Hint it's NOT Bernie. nt UniteFightBack Jan 2020 #26
It's only opinion. (It's also mine) LakeArenal Jan 2020 #4
Emphasis on "Democrats, please listen and learn." George II Jan 2020 #5
It would wind up a bigger landslide than Nixon/McGovern; Reagan/Mondale; Johnson/Goldwater George II Jan 2020 #6
I don't believe that. Blue_true Jan 2020 #16
+1000 UniteFightBack Jan 2020 #27
I have to say, I don't think Sanders is looking well...now we have VP's so that would not dissuade Demsrule86 Jan 2020 #8
If Sanders' medical records can be hacked, the Russians have them and are Blue_true Jan 2020 #17
Misguided, but not surprising. redqueen Jan 2020 #10
I was amused by the article cited in that thread Gothmog Jan 2020 #15
If Bernie wins the nomination, he may beat McGovern's loss NYMinute Jan 2020 #11
If Gabbard is sanders' VP, they may pick up Hawaii Gothmog Jan 2020 #36
No they won't NYMinute Jan 2020 #37
K&R highplainsdem Jan 2020 #12
There's the thing - you have to go back to 1972 to find a too left candidate, crazytown Jan 2020 #13
The two elections you listed were very close. So you sort of blew up your own argument. nt Blue_true Jan 2020 #18
72, 84, Dems faced an ultra popular president crazytown Jan 2020 #19
True. But Bush was also popular in 2004. The Iraq debacle had not yet blown up on him. Blue_true Jan 2020 #20
W was the least popular president to be re-elected in the modern era crazytown Jan 2020 #21
Bush II was only slightly less popular than Eisenhower and both won re-election. Blue_true Jan 2020 #24
Approval on re-Election Day: Ike 68%, W 48% crazytown Jan 2020 #25
Bush Jr was at 48.4% on election day, Eisenhower was 68% NewJeffCT Jan 2020 #33
K&R! nt TexasTowelie Jan 2020 #14
Campaign contributions data. David__77 Jan 2020 #23
What does this have to do with the OP? nt UniteFightBack Jan 2020 #28
I was curious about that also Gothmog Jan 2020 #29
Funny how Biden's actions 20 years ago aren't relevant but an election 47 years ago is Bradshaw3 Jan 2020 #30
You're allowed to bring up anything you like. LanternWaste Jan 2020 #32
I think this would be almost beyond doubt. His admirers Hortensis Jan 2020 #31
As long ago as that was, his experience is still relevant. MineralMan Jan 2020 #34
You and I both lived through that campaign Gothmog Jan 2020 #35
It's Bernie, not Biden, who has the electability problem Gothmog Jan 2020 #38
The last time we experimented with a close to Bernie and Liz candidate was in 1972-George McGovern. Gothmog Jan 2020 #39
Looks familiar Gothmog Feb 2020 #40
Sanders would lose to trump Gothmog Feb 2020 #41
Trump is salivating at the prospect of running against Sanders Gothmog Feb 2020 #42
James Clyburn thinks that sanders is like McGovern Gothmog Feb 2020 #43
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