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Democratic Primaries
In reply to the discussion: Marshall Matz, a policy adviser for Sen. George McGovern's failed 1972 bid warned Dems [View all]Gothmog
(177,725 posts)38. It's Bernie, not Biden, who has the electability problem
Link to tweet
Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) has decided to attack Joe Biden, claiming that the moderate former vice president, who sits atop virtually every national poll with solid African American support, is somehow unelectable. His argument is that Biden couldnt possibly be elected because he voted for the Iraq War nearly 20 years ago and for the North American Free Trade Agreement 27 years ago. There is no data to support that argument and, logically, one would think that running as a self-described socialist now is a much bigger electability problem than Bidens past votes, but we do not have to speculate.
Some of Sanderss signature, super-progressive issues play very poorly in swing states. The Kaiser Family Foundations Blue Wall Voices Project last year found that large shares of swing voters in Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin say stopping detainments at the U.S. border for people cross into the country illegally and a national Medicare-for-all plan are bad ideas.
Moreover, polling over the last week or so shows clearly that picking Sanders would be a gamble. While he once was leading outside the margin of error in head-to-head matchups against President Trump, he is now losing or at best within the margin of error while Biden continues to be the most viable candidate against Trump.....
Moreover, given that Democratic victories are heavily dependent on African American turnout, it is difficult to see that Sanders, who gets a fraction of the African American support that Biden does, could turn out a bigger African American vote than Biden could. (Recall that in the 2016 primary, Hillary Clinton walloped Sanders among African American voters.) In the latest Fox News South Carolina poll, Biden gets 43 percent of the African American vote, Sanders just 12 percent.
And finally, remember that in the 2018 midterms, super-progressive candidates endorsed by Sanders did not flip a single House seat from red to blue. All those House seats were flipped by Biden-type moderates.
There will be a debate next week. That might be a good moment to quiz Sanders on where his claim to superior electability comes from. So far, there is not a whole lot if any evidence to back up his boast.
Some of Sanderss signature, super-progressive issues play very poorly in swing states. The Kaiser Family Foundations Blue Wall Voices Project last year found that large shares of swing voters in Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin say stopping detainments at the U.S. border for people cross into the country illegally and a national Medicare-for-all plan are bad ideas.
Moreover, polling over the last week or so shows clearly that picking Sanders would be a gamble. While he once was leading outside the margin of error in head-to-head matchups against President Trump, he is now losing or at best within the margin of error while Biden continues to be the most viable candidate against Trump.....
Moreover, given that Democratic victories are heavily dependent on African American turnout, it is difficult to see that Sanders, who gets a fraction of the African American support that Biden does, could turn out a bigger African American vote than Biden could. (Recall that in the 2016 primary, Hillary Clinton walloped Sanders among African American voters.) In the latest Fox News South Carolina poll, Biden gets 43 percent of the African American vote, Sanders just 12 percent.
And finally, remember that in the 2018 midterms, super-progressive candidates endorsed by Sanders did not flip a single House seat from red to blue. All those House seats were flipped by Biden-type moderates.
There will be a debate next week. That might be a good moment to quiz Sanders on where his claim to superior electability comes from. So far, there is not a whole lot if any evidence to back up his boast.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
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Marshall Matz, a policy adviser for Sen. George McGovern's failed 1972 bid warned Dems [View all]
Gothmog
Jan 2020
OP
It will be worse. George McGovern not only proudly wore the Democratic label, he didn't go out of
still_one
Jan 2020
#3
Yes unity...and who are the candidates promoting that??? Hint it's NOT Bernie. nt
UniteFightBack
Jan 2020
#26
It would wind up a bigger landslide than Nixon/McGovern; Reagan/Mondale; Johnson/Goldwater
George II
Jan 2020
#6
I have to say, I don't think Sanders is looking well...now we have VP's so that would not dissuade
Demsrule86
Jan 2020
#8
There's the thing - you have to go back to 1972 to find a too left candidate,
crazytown
Jan 2020
#13
The two elections you listed were very close. So you sort of blew up your own argument. nt
Blue_true
Jan 2020
#18
True. But Bush was also popular in 2004. The Iraq debacle had not yet blown up on him.
Blue_true
Jan 2020
#20
Bush II was only slightly less popular than Eisenhower and both won re-election.
Blue_true
Jan 2020
#24
Funny how Biden's actions 20 years ago aren't relevant but an election 47 years ago is
Bradshaw3
Jan 2020
#30