Bottom line problem: No black or brown person will be on any primary ballot

[karynnj]

29. Was it the chicken or the egg?

Last edited Tue Jan 14, 2020, 01:39 PM - Edit history (1)

A year ago, there were a large number of candidates, some minority, some women and some white males. You argue that it was the media and polls that led to the current situation where I think only Deval Patrick and Tulsi Gabbad are non white and still (technically) running. (Patrick entered the race far too late and Gabbad is not in the Democratic mainstream (to say it politely). )

I don't know if the media led or followed. In all races, there is more coverage of people who are frontrunners or are surging. Initially, the frontrunners will be those with name recognition. I think if you go back to Kamala Harris' incredible announcement rally, she actually was given some pretty good, positive coverage and that was when she surged on DU. (I think SNL was terrible to her, but they were terrible to everyone)

I also think most of the coverage of Julian Castro and Corey Booker was positive. Both leave with a positive image. I lived in NJ until 2012 and know that Cory Booker was labeled a superstar as soon as he won the mayor's race in Newark. He was seen as a very intelligent, hands on mayor - even pitching in during a major snow storm to dig residents out. He left that job to become Senator, completely untarnished by the typical crime that most Newark mayors were convicted of. To put it mildly, being a successful mayor of Newark, which he was, is much much more complicated than being a successful mayor of South Bend (in Indiana where I grew up) or Burlington (where I live now). Add to that, he has always been eloquent, well spoken, and thoughtful.

I have no idea why he did not catch fire, but the fact is - he didn't - not even in Iowa. One of the few values of the Iowa caucus is that over time, people in Iowa want to meet the candidates often in small meet and greets to start with. Iowa can select a candidate not preferred by the media, but who impresses them. The best example is Jimmy Carter, who "came out of nowhere" (or the Georgia governorship to come in second to unaligned in the 1976 caucus. At that point, he got media.

A better analogue to Booker could have been John Kerry, who, like Booker had a life story that had been covered by the media although the media's main coverage in 2003 was speculation as to when he would drop out. The New Republic actually had 5 endorsements written pre primary, one was even for Lieberman, but none was for Kerry. Kerry gained support in Iowa, meeting with thousands of Iowans face to face, and won a convincing victory in Iowa that gave him the momentum to win NH, where he was well known. In December 2002, because he was not getting donations, Kerry lent his campaign money from mortgaging his house, because he knew that they were gaining support in Iowa. If Booker saw that he was gaining support and likely to pull off a good showing in Iowa, he would not have dropped out yesterday.

If the problem was just media and party, the very charismatic Cory Booker could have been the one to caught fire in Iowa. I know Iowa is very white, but remember that it is there that Obama caught fire. As to the media and party support, the question is IF Booker (or Harris) had caught fire, would they have - as in 2008 - covered them more and been seen as supportive.

However, he was not alone in having been a media favorite who just didn't gain support. You could add Governor Inslee, who really was the one who had the best credentials on climate change. Same with Governor Hickenlooper. Red state creds - add Governor Bullock. All white, all with strong cases to be considered - none got any support at all.