BTRTN: Warren Had the TV Moment, but the Debate's Real Winner May Have Been Bloomberg [View all]

[reggieandlee]

Born To Run The Numbers provides its analysis of last night's Democratic debate:

http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2020/01/btrtn-warren-had-tv-moment-but-debates.html

Excerpts: "Elizabeth Warren clearly had the most impactful soundbyte of last night’s debate, but it did not appear than any of the six candidates sustained a decisive, break-out performance for the full evening. So if last night amounted to a draw in which few minds were changed, it is entirely possible that the Iowa caucuses themselves will be a very close affair with no candidate emerging with a turbo-charge of momentum. If that is indeed true, then the real beneficiary of last night’s debate may have been the guy who decided to stand on the sidelines...
"It’s likely that Elizabeth Warren picked up some ground on Bernie Sanders in their zero-sum contest to lead the progressive wing of the party. And all that does is put the two them back at even with each other. It is the worst case scenario for the progressives: Sanders and Warren remain deadlocked, preventing either from leveraging the full power of the progressive wing. It is mutually assured destruction.
"In the centrist lane, Biden, Buttigieg, and Klobuchar each did enough to hold their own supporters, but no one seemed to be taking the risks you need to take to break out...
"The bottom line: there simply will not be much movement in the polls based on this debate. And which campaign is going to benefit the most from that? Somewhere in a high rise in Manhattan, Michael Bloomberg was watching this debate, seeing no one break out from the pack. And if indeed no candidate breaks out decisively in these early races, it will have the effect of diminishing the entire field. The conclusion will not be that the five major candidates are equally good, it will be that none of them is good enough...
And who stands to gain in that scenario?"