We don't know if 2020 voters will want a moderate consensus building candidate or a system changer [View all]

[Tom Rinaldo]

THAT is one of the main reasons why I am not firmly in any candidate's camp yet. Sure I know we have to win, that beating Trump is virtually everything. THAT is one of the main reasons why I am not firmly in any candidae's camp yet.

It is old accepted political wisdom that the path to the Presidency runs through the center in the General Election by attempting to win over the small sliver of genuinely undecided swing voters in the middle of the ideological spectrum. That accepted wisdom was definitely cracked if not shattered in 2016. What we went through in 2016 may cause the center to reassert itself as a counter reaction for 2020, or it may have been an indicator that we are seeing increasing turbulence in the electorate that has not yet seen its peak. Tried and true was not the winning formula in 2016. It is far to early to be seen what will be in 2020.

At this point I am throwing all of the various electability arguments all candidate proponents are making straight out the window. It is simply too damn soon to make that case for anyone. The first primary votes are still ten months away. The Democratic Convention is well over a year away. Most Americans are not focused yet on the 2020 election beyond a gut instinct on whether Trump is good or bad for America. The minority who think he is good for America are virtually all beyond our reach, unless reality intervenes with a crisis of some sort, like an economic recession. Beyond that there is no clarity over what type of President Americans want next, to a large degree because most Americans aren't thinking about that yet.

We are guessing what other people will be thinking a year and a half from now before the primaries have even begun let alone a general election. There hasn't even been one let alone a dozen Democratic Presidential debates. I am watching to see how broad numbers of people actually respond to our candidates, not predicting who we should support now based on projections of who the electorate will want later. And for the moment I am looking at our candidates on their own merits, not on who I think other people will appreciate the merits of in the future.