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Democratic Primaries

dsc

(53,408 posts)

5. actually since one of the options is no one having it on the first ballot

Reply to bluewater (Reply #2)

Mon Jan 20, 2020, 11:15 AM

Jan 2020

and it is absurd to think Biden wouldn't win a goodly number of those scenarios, it doesn't say anything like that. Biden is at 43% and no one is at 15%. Given that super delegates, which Biden has many of, would end up coming into play he has to be favored in half of the outcomes where no one has a majority, which puts him over 50%

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

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538's forecast of who'll get the nomination, updated today: Biden 44%, Sanders 19%, Warren 13% [View all] highplainsdem Jan 2020 OP

good news for bernie! getagrip_already Jan 2020 #1

WTF?!? Biden is still not at a 50% CHANCE of getting the nomination? bluewater Jan 2020 #2

I don't think you understand how odds work. TwilightZone Jan 2020 #3

The odds from 538 say Biden is likely NOT to be the nominee. bluewater Jan 2020 #4

Sanders has 20% chance treestar Jan 2020 #6

Here's the actual odds. Based on this, Biden has the best chance. Quackers Jan 2020 #7

Well squirecam Jan 2020 #10

Nope, it's not that simple Hav Jan 2020 #18

Let's put it this way....Biden has a 57% chance of "not" winning, Sanders has an 80% chance... George II Jan 2020 #24

This. BannonsLiver Jan 2020 #17

actually since one of the options is no one having it on the first ballot dsc Jan 2020 #5

The odds look pretty good to me beastie boy Jan 2020 #11

A lot can change, TexasTowelie Jan 2020 #14

He has a better shot to be the nominee than Warren! Nt helpisontheway Jan 2020 #20

According to Nate, Joe Biden is ahead in Iowa Gothmog Jan 2020 #8

Yep. I'm watching for any updates today on their forecast page. None so far. highplainsdem Jan 2020 #9

Biden at 44% Gothmog Jan 2020 #15

Yep. I've updated the OP. highplainsdem Jan 2020 #16

That's HUMILIATING for Bernie. He's cratering. Devastating. NurseJackie Jan 2020 #12

Just edited the OP for today's update. Biden up to 44%, Sanders down to 19%. highplainsdem Jan 2020 #13

Thanks! Cha Jan 2020 #23

Good news! peggysue2 Jan 2020 #19

Exactly! Trends going his way and Bernie is getting concerned..Look out helpisontheway Jan 2020 #21

KR Cha Jan 2020 #22

I'm a Warren fan, I've met and like Klobuchar xmas74 Jan 2020 #25