Democratic Primaries

George II

(67,782 posts)

24. Let's put it this way....Biden has a 57% chance of "not" winning, Sanders has an 80% chance...

Tue Jan 21, 2020, 10:16 AM

Jan 2020

...of not winning, Warren an 87% chance of not winning.

But keep in mind, 538 also says he'll have 1640 delegates (about equal to Warren and Sanders combined). It only takes ~1900 to win. If he doesn't after the first ballot, chances are NONE of his delegates will flee but some of Warren's and Buttigieg's delegates will go to Biden and there are about 770 super delegates, most are long-time loyal Democrats who have known Biden for decades. Chances are the bulk of them will vote for Biden.

No brokered convention.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

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538's forecast of who'll get the nomination, updated today: Biden 44%, Sanders 19%, Warren 13% [View all] highplainsdem Jan 2020 OP

good news for bernie! getagrip_already Jan 2020 #1

WTF?!? Biden is still not at a 50% CHANCE of getting the nomination? bluewater Jan 2020 #2

I don't think you understand how odds work. TwilightZone Jan 2020 #3

The odds from 538 say Biden is likely NOT to be the nominee. bluewater Jan 2020 #4

Sanders has 20% chance treestar Jan 2020 #6

Here's the actual odds. Based on this, Biden has the best chance. Quackers Jan 2020 #7

Well squirecam Jan 2020 #10

Nope, it's not that simple Hav Jan 2020 #18

Let's put it this way....Biden has a 57% chance of "not" winning, Sanders has an 80% chance... George II Jan 2020 #24

This. BannonsLiver Jan 2020 #17

actually since one of the options is no one having it on the first ballot dsc Jan 2020 #5

The odds look pretty good to me beastie boy Jan 2020 #11

A lot can change, TexasTowelie Jan 2020 #14

He has a better shot to be the nominee than Warren! Nt helpisontheway Jan 2020 #20

According to Nate, Joe Biden is ahead in Iowa Gothmog Jan 2020 #8

Yep. I'm watching for any updates today on their forecast page. None so far. highplainsdem Jan 2020 #9

Biden at 44% Gothmog Jan 2020 #15

Yep. I've updated the OP. highplainsdem Jan 2020 #16

That's HUMILIATING for Bernie. He's cratering. Devastating. NurseJackie Jan 2020 #12

Just edited the OP for today's update. Biden up to 44%, Sanders down to 19%. highplainsdem Jan 2020 #13

Thanks! Cha Jan 2020 #23

Good news! peggysue2 Jan 2020 #19

Exactly! Trends going his way and Bernie is getting concerned..Look out helpisontheway Jan 2020 #21

KR Cha Jan 2020 #22

I'm a Warren fan, I've met and like Klobuchar xmas74 Jan 2020 #25