Democratic Primaries

George II

(67,782 posts)

9. Not "projected", but currently ahead by 0.1% in the average of the polls. Winning a state...

Sun Jan 26, 2020, 04:28 PM

Jan 2020

...in proportional primaries is virtually meaningless unless it's won convincingly. In your example, California, if nothing changes Biden will win 152 delegates, Sanders 152 delegates, and Warren 112.

It's states where Biden has huge leads that will determine the nominee:

SC Biden +20.2
GA Biden +18.3
FL Biden +19.5
TX Biden +12.5
PA Biden +11.7
VA Biden +13.5

Sanders has no such leads in any significant states.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

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Polling roundup: Sanders challenges Biden's frontrunner status [View all] melman Jan 2020 OP

"In past cycles, the first two states have been determinative for the race for the nomination." George II Jan 2020 #1

Thank you!! Thekaspervote Jan 2020 #2

"Not true.' melman Jan 2020 #3

In at least three of the last five contested primary campaigns, the eventual nominee.... George II Jan 2020 #4

In 2000 squirecam Jan 2020 #7

These Iowa and NEw Hampshire means any posts really irk me GitRDun Jan 2020 #5

538: Sanders projected to win California melman Jan 2020 #6

RCP projects Biden or Warren winning... pfeiffer Jan 2020 #8

Not "projected", but currently ahead by 0.1% in the average of the polls. Winning a state... George II Jan 2020 #9

Indeed...the states listed here have a large number of delegates. IA, NH,really don't mean much Thekaspervote Jan 2020 #10