My pre-Iowa prediction.. it will be candidate Sanders, but President Trump.

[cab67]

39. I don't disrespect Sanders supporters as a default.

Last edited Tue Jan 28, 2020, 01:06 PM - Edit history (1)

Many of my friends are die-hard Sanders supporters. But believe it or not, much of my opposition to his nomination comes from a real desire to protect progressive causes in the USA.

Sanders is not electable. He has very little to show for his long years of service in Congress, and he has a surprising amount of baggage that Democrats (I almost said "fellow Democrats;" ever notice Sanders is only a Democrat when he's running for president?) are reluctant to use, just as they're reluctant to use serious baggage against any other Democrat - they don't want to alienate the other candidates' supporters. Polls taken before the general election of which candidate would do best against the other party are worthless because they do not, and cannot, take into account what the opposing party will throw at them.

I take no pleasure in saying any of this. I actually agree with Sanders on almost everything. In an ideal world, he'd be the ideal candidate. But we're not living in an ideal world.

Consider the presidential elections from 1972 through 1988. Democrats ran progressive candidates each time, and 1976 excepted, they lost each time - badly.

I'm not comparing this election cycle with any other. There are all kinds of reasons each of those elections turned out that way. Did voters really agree with Reagan's politics in 1980, or did Carter lose through a combination of a recession, the Iran hostage crisis, and a lesser ability to play up a crowd? (Likewise, did Carter win in 1976 because people really liked what he stood for, or was it lingering malaise over Watergate and the fall of Saigon?).

I am, however, comparing what would happen in the aftermath of a Sanders defeat with what happened following the defeat of Dukakis. After a string of losses, the Democratic leadership was ready to throw its support behind someone less progressive. Hence Bill Clinton. I proudly voted for him twice, and he did a lot of good (esp. his inspired Supreme Court nominations), but to quote Molly Ivins, he wasn't my kind of Democrat. He was arguably closer to the center than his predecessors. And this was very much on purpose.

It wouldn't matter why Sanders lost. Was it the New York accent? A foreign-driven misinformation campaign? Lack of support from other Democratic candidates? Any or all of these could be true, but the end result would be the same - we won't see another progressive candidate come this close to the nomination for at least a full generation.

Hence my disquiet with Sanders. It's not what he stands for - it's what will happen in spite of what he stands for.