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Democratic Primaries
In reply to the discussion: Democrats court doom by backing Bernie Sanders. His ideas are toxic outside blue America. [View all]Gothmog
(181,599 posts)104. Damned if they do, doomed if they don't: Why Sanders rivals don't go negative
The real democrats in this race have not started to go negative on him yet but trump has a ton to work with and will bury and destroy such a weak candidate like sanders
Link to tweet
One factor in Sanderss success is how little scrutiny he has faced from rivals on the campaign trail and the debate stage. Media accounts that catalogue Sanderss atypical history and decades-old comments are easy to find for anyone who cares to look. But no one knows how Sanders will fare when Democratic or Republican rivals attack him in a high-profile fashion, which to this point no one has seriously done.
Democrats face a classic collective-action problem. The party has a strong interest in publicly vetting Sanders before he becomes its nominee, but no candidate wants to be the one to go negative on him. Instead, as with Donald Trumps Republican opponents in 2016, other Democratic candidates are seemingly hoping to pick off Sanders voters during the primary season, or at least attract their support in November, without doing the dirty work of criticizing his record. Attacks that appear to echo potential Republican talking points are especially likely to go unsaid. As a result, large numbers of voters may not learn about Sanderss vulnerabilities and how they might be exploited in a general election until much later in the race.
The lack of scrutiny of Sanders dates back to 2016. Despite his long career in politics, Sanders was a little-known outsider before his presidential campaign against Hillary Clinton. His unexpectedly strong showing in that race made him a national figure with an unusually positive public image. Why? Few politicians ever criticized him. Sanders never seriously threatened Clintons hold on the nomination, so she mostly held her fire, preferring to try to keep his voters in the fold for November. Republicans largely withheld criticism as well, presumably appreciating his refusal to withdraw from the race and hoping to run against him rather than Clinton in the general election.
These attacks will come, however, if Sanders is the Democratic nominee. Any candidate will face attacks, of course, but for contenders like Sanders who have been insulated from previous criticism, the potential for damage is especially great.,,,,
Moreover, though Democratic candidates dont want to make this point in the primary race, attacks on Sanderss praise of socialist and communist governments are likely to be especially damaging when paired with criticism of his policy proposals as big-government socialism. Even Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), who once assiduously sought to prevent Sanders from getting to her left, has realized the risks of Sanderss plan to move all health care to a single-payer system and has started to edge away from the idea. Only 20 percent of voters and just 37 percent of Democrats say they would be enthusiastic about voting for a socialist for president.
Labels like socialist are abstract and poorly understood by most voters, of course; some of Sanderss policies are indeed popular. But the penalty for extremism is real. When ideologically extreme candidates narrowly defeat moderates for a party nomination, the political scientists Andrew Hall and Daniel Thompson find, they perform more poorly in the general election, in part because they inspire the other partys base more than their own. For instance, former Kansas secretary of state Kris Kobach, a hard-right conservative, barely beat the Republican governor in the 2018 gubernatorial primary before losing the general election to a Democrat by five percentage points.
Trump might seem to be a counterexample, but Sanders will struggle to replicate his success. Its true that Trump won the White House despite having unusually high unfavorable ratings and a personal background that many voters considered disqualifying. Like Trump, Sanders would surely benefit from the strong pull of party loyalty, which can help counter the doubts of some potential supporters. But Trump had a key advantage: Voters in 2016 saw him as unusually moderate, which helped him overcome those record unfavorable numbers. Though the public now sees Trump as more conservative than in the last election, it views Sanders as even more distant from the center.
Besides his socialist positions, Sanders also has a long paper trail of writings and statements about sex, gender and race that have received relatively little attention but are likely to provoke far more controversy if he wins the nomination. In one 1969 essay, for instance, Sanders wrote that the manner in which you bring up your daughter with regard to sexual attitudes may very well determine whether or not she will develop breast cancer, among other things. And does his diverse coalition of young supporters know he once compared workers in Vermont to slaves?
Democrats face a classic collective-action problem. The party has a strong interest in publicly vetting Sanders before he becomes its nominee, but no candidate wants to be the one to go negative on him. Instead, as with Donald Trumps Republican opponents in 2016, other Democratic candidates are seemingly hoping to pick off Sanders voters during the primary season, or at least attract their support in November, without doing the dirty work of criticizing his record. Attacks that appear to echo potential Republican talking points are especially likely to go unsaid. As a result, large numbers of voters may not learn about Sanderss vulnerabilities and how they might be exploited in a general election until much later in the race.
The lack of scrutiny of Sanders dates back to 2016. Despite his long career in politics, Sanders was a little-known outsider before his presidential campaign against Hillary Clinton. His unexpectedly strong showing in that race made him a national figure with an unusually positive public image. Why? Few politicians ever criticized him. Sanders never seriously threatened Clintons hold on the nomination, so she mostly held her fire, preferring to try to keep his voters in the fold for November. Republicans largely withheld criticism as well, presumably appreciating his refusal to withdraw from the race and hoping to run against him rather than Clinton in the general election.
These attacks will come, however, if Sanders is the Democratic nominee. Any candidate will face attacks, of course, but for contenders like Sanders who have been insulated from previous criticism, the potential for damage is especially great.,,,,
Moreover, though Democratic candidates dont want to make this point in the primary race, attacks on Sanderss praise of socialist and communist governments are likely to be especially damaging when paired with criticism of his policy proposals as big-government socialism. Even Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), who once assiduously sought to prevent Sanders from getting to her left, has realized the risks of Sanderss plan to move all health care to a single-payer system and has started to edge away from the idea. Only 20 percent of voters and just 37 percent of Democrats say they would be enthusiastic about voting for a socialist for president.
Labels like socialist are abstract and poorly understood by most voters, of course; some of Sanderss policies are indeed popular. But the penalty for extremism is real. When ideologically extreme candidates narrowly defeat moderates for a party nomination, the political scientists Andrew Hall and Daniel Thompson find, they perform more poorly in the general election, in part because they inspire the other partys base more than their own. For instance, former Kansas secretary of state Kris Kobach, a hard-right conservative, barely beat the Republican governor in the 2018 gubernatorial primary before losing the general election to a Democrat by five percentage points.
Trump might seem to be a counterexample, but Sanders will struggle to replicate his success. Its true that Trump won the White House despite having unusually high unfavorable ratings and a personal background that many voters considered disqualifying. Like Trump, Sanders would surely benefit from the strong pull of party loyalty, which can help counter the doubts of some potential supporters. But Trump had a key advantage: Voters in 2016 saw him as unusually moderate, which helped him overcome those record unfavorable numbers. Though the public now sees Trump as more conservative than in the last election, it views Sanders as even more distant from the center.
Besides his socialist positions, Sanders also has a long paper trail of writings and statements about sex, gender and race that have received relatively little attention but are likely to provoke far more controversy if he wins the nomination. In one 1969 essay, for instance, Sanders wrote that the manner in which you bring up your daughter with regard to sexual attitudes may very well determine whether or not she will develop breast cancer, among other things. And does his diverse coalition of young supporters know he once compared workers in Vermont to slaves?
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
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Democrats court doom by backing Bernie Sanders. His ideas are toxic outside blue America. [View all]
Gothmog
Jan 2020
OP
Third Way is an advocacy group. They are in favor of SS cuts and other "centrist"
DanTex
Jan 2020
#7
I don't understand your question. What "names" other than Third Way do you mean?
DanTex
Jan 2020
#10
It's also an organization. And the people who wrote this article work for Third Way.
DanTex
Jan 2020
#96
Well, they wrote this article, so they have enough pull to get journals to give them space.
DanTex
Jan 2020
#98
Pretty fun to pretend we know whose friends are whose. As long as we admit it's pretense.
LanternWaste
Jan 2020
#94
LOL. The "cuts" are on billionaires and multi-millionares via means testing.
The Valley Below
Jan 2020
#18
I don't know, apparently there are some voters out there (and here) that want to cut SS.
DanTex
Jan 2020
#36
Joe should just admit to his past positions on SS and Medicare, but, understandably, he can't.
InAbLuEsTaTe
Jan 2020
#41
Means testing turns Social Security recipients into just another group that is . . .
markpkessinger
Jan 2020
#71
So billionaires and (at least for a time) millionaires get slagged on 24/7
The Valley Below
Jan 2020
#73
"What Republicans think" has a funny way of influencing what centrist Democrats think n/t
markpkessinger
Jan 2020
#74
Oh, now THERE's a comment that will unify the party and inspire votersto turn out at the polls .. .
markpkessinger
Jan 2020
#77
Unifying the party doesn't seem to me like where you are going with these BS attacks.
The Valley Below
Jan 2020
#78
Your posts have shown a HUGE problem with anyone you consider "centrist" which is
ehrnst
Jan 2020
#87
Yeaaa, they may be talking about Bernie now but honestly, I think it'll be all about Bloomberg soon
Vivienne235729
Jan 2020
#12
The great liberal Democrat Joe Biden is ahead, has always been ahead, and is on track
The Valley Below
Jan 2020
#20
I won't argue w that. I can see him picking off JB's #'s. But I don't think thats a bad thing right
Vivienne235729
Jan 2020
#23
Biden took the fight to Trump from day one. He defined the 2020 election more profoundly than
emmaverybo
Jan 2020
#80
Nope, I heard it. I also heard them go after each other which really dilutes their attack on trump.
Vivienne235729
Feb 2020
#144
Yup, lovin' it. Hillary's latest urge to run may bring her into the race too...
InAbLuEsTaTe
Jan 2020
#38
We've tried goin the centrist route several times recently, without success...
InAbLuEsTaTe
Jan 2020
#51
George McGovern was a very decent man. In contrast, Nixon's campaign
OneMoreCupOfCoffee
Jan 2020
#83
Not that long ago this kind of crap would not have been tolerated on DU. I'm beginning to think
lutherj
Jan 2020
#22
sure is interesting how russian bots sneak these progressive hit pieces into DU nt
yaesu
Jan 2020
#26
Are you accusing Gothmog of being a Russian bot, or am I misunderstanding your post?
Jedi Guy
Feb 2020
#153
You say you are Bernie or bust; will you support the Democratic nominee if it is not Sanders?
LongtimeAZDem
Jan 2020
#50
What is really toxic is that article, nothing to rejoice about even if you don't support Sanders
Perseus
Jan 2020
#42
I believe with a moderate candidate we could get many Pub votes from thosse who are disgusted with
napi21
Jan 2020
#52
We're repeating the same mistakes of 2016 and are going to lose if it keeps up.
Chicago1980
Jan 2020
#58
The establishment does indeed have a lot to lose with a Sanders candidacy.
Scotch-Irish
Jan 2020
#109
That's just not true. Sanders appeals to a lot of the trump voters that wanted someone
Scotch-Irish
Jan 2020
#111
I was a delegate in 2016 and right now I plan on honoring the tradition of letting other people go
Gothmog
Jan 2020
#119
The status quo would be re-electing trump which is what happen if sanders is nominee
Gothmog
Jan 2020
#114
I do not want to see trump re-elected due to such a weak candidate like sanders
Gothmog
Jan 2020
#120