It is beyond strange that people think 1972 is a better predictor of 2020 than 2016

[Drunken Irishman]

60. Moderates didn't go for Hillary by near the margin they did Obama...

So, your point is wrong. Hillary did fourteen-points worse among moderate voters, who made up 40% of the electorate in Wisconsin in 2016.

In 2012, moderates made up a total of 1,227,373 voters. That was out of 3,068,434‬. Of those voters, Obama won 748,697.

In 2016, moderates made up a total of 1,190,460 voters. That was out of 2,976,150. Of those voters, Clinton won 619,039. Total, she received 129,658 fewer moderate votes than Obama in 2012.

Hillary lost Wisconsin by 22,748.

Focusing solely on that 18-29 vote is risky because it's smaller and it's more fickle. Plus, I don't know if there's a guarantee that Bernie can do as well as Obama did among this group. If he does even minimally worse, and does worse among moderate votes, even if he does better than Hillary in 2016 among these younger voters, it might not be enough to win a state like Wisconsin.