Welcome to DU! The truly grassroots left-of-center political community where regular people, not algorithms, drive the discussions and set the standards. Join the community: Create a free account Support DU (and get rid of ads!): Become a Star Member Latest Breaking News Editorials & Other Articles General Discussion The DU Lounge All Forums Issue Forums Culture Forums Alliance Forums Region Forums Support Forums Help & Search

Democratic Primaries

(12,618 posts)

7. Given that when you look at the averages of all polls for the last 4 presidenital elections,

Fri Jan 31, 2020, 02:26 PM

Jan 2020

and they have come within 2 to 3 points of the eventual election result each time (and sometimes closer), I would say the answer to your question is a resounding YES.

You should believe them.

Kerry vs Bush 2004:
Polling average: Bush +1.5%
Final result: Bush +2.4%
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2004/president/us/general_election_bush_vs_kerry-939.html

Obama vs McCain 2008:
Polling average: Obama +7.6%
Final result: Obama +7.3%
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html

Obama vs Romney 2012:
Polling Average: Obama +0.7%
Final result: Obama +3.9%
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html

Clinton vs Trump 2012:
Polling average: Clinton +3.2%
Final result: Clinton +2.1%
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html

Polling has gotten very good at predicting outcomes. Ignore it at your own risk.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Edit history

Please sign in to view edit histories.

0 members have recommended this reply (displayed in chronological order):

15 replies

= new reply since forum marked as read

Highlight:

Two new GE polls both have Biden doing better than Sanders against Trump [View all] highplainsdem Jan 2020 OP

"Should we take these early GE polls seriously?" Tiggeroshii Jan 2020 #1

but but but people only agree with 538 when they like what 538 says... bluewater Jan 2020 #2

Those avgs are based on an aggregate of later polling only Tiggeroshii Jan 2020 #8

True, but the point is, polling works. Downtown Hound Jan 2020 #10

Agreed. Tiggeroshii Jan 2020 #11

In this highly polarized environment Downtown Hound Jan 2020 #12

I understand your position but respectfully disagree. Tiggeroshii Jan 2020 #13

If BS were ahead would you "take them seriously"? Cha Jan 2020 #15

Thx highplainsdem... more good numbers for the front runner! Thekaspervote Jan 2020 #4

Message auto-removed Name removed Jan 2020 #5

And this is why Trump is desperate flamingdem Jan 2020 #6

K&R Tarheel_Dem Jan 2020 #14