BTRTN Iowa Caucuses Prediction: Bernie with a Solid Win, Biden Comfortably in Second [View all]

[reggieandlee]

Born to Run the Numbers provides its prediction of the outcome of the Iowa Caucuses:

http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2020/02/btrtn-iowa-caucuses-prediction-bernie.html

Excerpts: "Caucuses are more difficult to predict than primaries, because that time-consuming voting process demands much more of voters than a normal primary, and thus voter turnout is quite low. It is difficult to discern the impact of this degree of commitment in polling – it’s hard to tell who is actually going to show up and stay. And the two-stage process adds its own unpredictable dynamic. Plus, relative to past Iowa caucuses, predictors like BTRTN do not have the benefit of a final Des Moines Register poll, typically the last of the cycle. Nevertheless, we at BTRTN have done well in the past. We correctly predicted the Clinton win in 2016 as well as Ted Cruz’s victory over Donald Trump and Marco Rubio in the GOP caucus. Both were extraordinarily close...

"So we venture forth again. Polling of late shows that Bernie Sanders has achieved some level of separation in the last few days from Joe Biden, and has some modest momentum. He also has a better “ground game” than Biden. Biden has been steady in January at about the 20% level, and is behind Sanders, while Pete Buttigieg and Elizabeth Warren are trailing Biden. Amy Klobuchar has been on the rise, but despite reaching double digits for the first time ever in Iowa in some polls, she remains in fifth place, and, importantly, below the 15% threshold. She will be zeroed out in a number of precincts, perhaps in a majority...

"The official Born To Run The Numbers prediction for the Democratic Iowa caucus is a solid win for Bernie Sanders, with Joe Biden finishing comfortably in second. Our prediction for the final vote is as follows..."