Democratic Primaries

bluewater

(5,420 posts)

16. Actually, it does not.

Mon Feb 3, 2020, 11:48 AM

Feb 2020

You have not shown there is no correlation, you have just cherry picked examples to support your argument.

If you want to provide actual statistics showing how often the eventual nominee won Iowa or New Hampshire compared to the rest of a contested field of candidates, I would love to discuss those results. But you have not.

Saying "But Ted Cruz won Iowa so Trump winning NH doesn't show early states having a statistical correlation to getting the nomination" is wrong simply because there were MORE THAN TWO CANDIDATES contesting the Republican nomination in 2016.

Trump, the eventual nominee, winning NH was STATISTICALLY significant compared to the 6 or so other candidates who did NOT win Iowa OR New Hampshire and did NOT end up winning the nomination.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

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No more Iowa polls. That's over. [View all] MineralMan Feb 2020 OP

one more poll.... getagrip_already Feb 2020 #1

This!! Thekaspervote Feb 2020 #2

Yes, the only decisive one, too. MineralMan Feb 2020 #5

unfortunately, given the new mechanics of reporting.... getagrip_already Feb 2020 #8

"They are a time to yell at your neighbors, coworkers, employees,, and family while bullying them. . rsdsharp Feb 2020 #24

I've seen it pandr32 Feb 2020 #26

May I ask where in Iowa the occurred? rsdsharp Feb 2020 #28

Washington State ahead of the 2016 election pandr32 Feb 2020 #29

I'm sorry about you experience in Washington. rsdsharp Feb 2020 #31

I sure hope it doesn't happen there pandr32 Feb 2020 #33

Lowering expectations again? bluewater Feb 2020 #3

it's NEVER been important to a frontrunner... getagrip_already Feb 2020 #4

Cherry picking? Seems so. bluewater Feb 2020 #7

actually, it proves my point... getagrip_already Feb 2020 #10

Actually, it does not. bluewater Feb 2020 #16

I feel like I'm talking to trump... ;) getagrip_already Feb 2020 #17

Your argument is simply flawed and based on cherry picking examples. bluewater Feb 2020 #21

Thanks for this Dave in VA Feb 2020 #11

Didn't batshit crazy Michelle Bachman once win one of these? happybird Feb 2020 #30

Not at all. I've been saying that the Iowa caucuses are meaningless MineralMan Feb 2020 #6

Using your logic, no individual state matters much then. bluewater Feb 2020 #12

Yes, well...who got Iowa's electors in 2016? MineralMan Feb 2020 #15

"Iowa's interesting, but not really very important at all..." myohmy2 Feb 2020 #9

Not at all. As I said, even if the candidate I support gets the most MineralMan Feb 2020 #13

not at all, just realistic... getagrip_already Feb 2020 #14

Obama. AtheistCrusader Feb 2020 #18

apologies... fixed... learning disability. ;) n/t getagrip_already Feb 2020 #19

No worries. AtheistCrusader Feb 2020 #20

Breaking! underpants Feb 2020 #22

They muffed the last one. RhodeIslandOne Feb 2020 #23

Um, not quite. 538 just added two results from a new Iowa poll. The primary results have Buttigieg highplainsdem Feb 2020 #25

Groan bluewater Feb 2020 #27

"Iowa's interesting, but not really very important at all, in the race to the nomination." Progress_Dem Feb 2020 #32