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Democratic Primaries

(20,709 posts)

13. As of right now, they give Bernie a 60% of beating Trump, which is the highest.

Wed Feb 5, 2020, 01:25 PM

Feb 2020

Biden has a 47% chance. Bloomberg 59%. Pete 53%.

You can calculate that by dividing the overall chances of becoming president by the chances of winning the nom, since the nom is a precondition for being president. So, for example, Bernie is at 43 for nomination, and 26 for president, and we get 26/43 = 60.465...%

These numbers jump around a bit with trading noise, but it's been pretty consistent that Bernie has been the most electable with oddsmakers for the last month or so.

https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/3633/Who-will-win-the-2020-Democratic-presidential-nomination
https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/3698/Who-will-win-the-2020-US-presidential-election

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

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Highlight:

Odds makers give Sanders a enormous 10 pt bump after Iowa acording to rcp avg [View all] Bumperstickers Feb 2020 OP

Anything other news to brighten my day? RandySF Feb 2020 #1

In a squeaker. Maybe... lapfog_1 Feb 2020 #5

Joe is 50% higher margin than Sanders when compared to Trump lapfog_1 Feb 2020 #7

Both Biden and Warren under performed. Biden underperformed more so. bluewater Feb 2020 #11

Pete and Bloomberg got bumps too. DanTex Feb 2020 #4

. Hassin Bin Sober Feb 2020 #12

Is what it is... Zeus69 Feb 2020 #8