Our Post-Iowa Primary Forecast Is Up, And Biden's Chances Are Down

[emmaverybo]

5. I think it is chrystal balling and way outsizes Iowa's impact on a much larger picture. I don't know

what factors the model considers, but we don’t even have information to determine factors that might be relevant right now—how voters view the importance of Iowa; any surge in AA support for Sanders and Buttigieg and a correspondingly steep decline in it for Biden; historical trends; impact on donations and endorsements, new polling from all the other states; consideration of any other candidates.


Enough time has not yet passed for information to come in on Iowa’s potential influence on these many factors and others. Dem voters are just processing the results. Any model that says Iowa’s results alone have so radically altered the outcome of a primary just begun is terribly flawed.

However, 538 added to media bias could become self-fulfilling prophecy. That will not prove the model works, just that it, like any fortune-telling can influence people’s minds and behavior.