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Democratic Primaries

RockRaven

(18,992 posts)

9. This. In-game probabilities which are calculated based on score and time remaining are

Reply to scheming daemons (Reply #2)

Thu Feb 6, 2020, 01:12 AM

Feb 2020

reflections of the universe of prior games -- i.e. what each of their scores were at each time point compared to the ultimate winner. This is not a "gotcha" moment which disproves the model in question.

OP is either misinformed or something worse.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

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538 does sports not just politics forecasts. They gave the 49ers a 93.8% chance of a Super Bowl win. [View all] highplainsdem Feb 2020 OP

ESPN does that in game squirecam Feb 2020 #1

That was when there was 7 minutes left in the game and SF was up by 10. scheming daemons Feb 2020 #2

Thank you. Gravitycollapse Feb 2020 #6

This. In-game probabilities which are calculated based on score and time remaining are RockRaven Feb 2020 #9

Really don't think it was HowardZinnfandel Feb 2020 #14

The team they were playing against was ALSO good enough to make the Super Bowl scheming daemons Feb 2020 #15

How many times had they played an offense like KC? HowardZinnfandel Feb 2020 #19

Never to forget, though, that although an "accurate prediction" Hortensis Feb 2020 #21

I like how suddenly 538 is awful and cant be trusted by anyone now that they think somebody else Tiggeroshii Feb 2020 #3

538 is a Rorschach test. Gravitycollapse Feb 2020 #5

Hah Tiggeroshii Feb 2020 #7

Exactly Awsi Dooger Feb 2020 #17

Actually, for a long time their text has made me suspect Hortensis Feb 2020 #20

That was a live calculation based on game stats. Gravitycollapse Feb 2020 #4

I guessed a higher probability ... Hermit-The-Prog Feb 2020 #8

LOL. Thats the thing about predicting the future. nt BootinUp Feb 2020 #10

538 is a sports model anyway carpetbagger Feb 2020 #11

If you knew anything about 538... Gravitycollapse Feb 2020 #13

Sooo, they said there's a chance Chiefs would win. greyl Feb 2020 #12

Good reads! emmaverybo Feb 2020 #16

Here's the most interesting application I have ever seen of in-game wagering Awsi Dooger Feb 2020 #18

Quants. They do very well in the stock markets, small margins and huge volumes. empedocles Feb 2020 #22

At the start of the 4th quarter maybe, before their comeback Polybius Feb 2020 #23

Nate Silver is a statistician whose real DeminPennswoods Feb 2020 #24

It was based on the game situation so whats the point of this? jcgoldie Feb 2020 #25

Now if Mayor Pete wins NH the odds will change . . Iliyah Feb 2020 #26

That doesn't make them wrong Loki Liesmith Feb 2020 #27

Weren't the final 6 minutes of the game an aberration? ecstatic Feb 2020 #28