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Democratic Primaries

Garrett78

(10,721 posts)

13. It will if he finishes 4th in New Hampshire. Or if he finishes 3rd and Buttigieg is 2nd.

Reply to emmaverybo (Reply #11)

Thu Feb 6, 2020, 04:06 AM

Feb 2020

Next thing you know he's finishing 3rd in Nevada and struggling to stay on top in South Carolina. Followed by a campaign-ending Super Tuesday collapse.

I'm not saying that's what will happen, but don't think that it can't. Biden needs to have a pretty strong showing in New Hampshire, and it's clear that his campaign realizes that (even if those within the DU bubble claim that Iowa and New Hampshire don't matter).

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

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Our Post-Iowa Primary Forecast Is Up, And Biden's Chances Are Down [View all] brooklynite Feb 2020 OP

I think 538's model is overestimating the impact of the Iowa results. highplainsdem Feb 2020 #1

I think we're already seeing the impact it's having... Drunken Irishman Feb 2020 #2

Well, if Sanders gets the nomination, we can probably forget about beating Trump, and forget about highplainsdem Feb 2020 #4

I think NH is going to be the pivot... Drunken Irishman Feb 2020 #6

You know you could as easily and in fairness to process playing out make S.C. the Pivot. However, emmaverybo Feb 2020 #7

I see the writing on the wall. Drunken Irishman Feb 2020 #8

You are a seer then. I'll bide my time. I never thought Biden would prevail in Iowa or NH though. emmaverybo Feb 2020 #9

It's not that Biden didn't prevail in Iowa... Drunken Irishman Feb 2020 #10

Has his polling changed dramatically for the worse in Nevada, in S.C.? In the swing states, in the emmaverybo Feb 2020 #11

It will if he finishes 4th in New Hampshire. Or if he finishes 3rd and Buttigieg is 2nd. Garrett78 Feb 2020 #13

COULD matter, or not. Voter's faith in Biden'a electability could take a hit, emmaverybo Feb 2020 #17

I'm not making any assumptions. Garrett78 Feb 2020 #18

Very possible it has... Drunken Irishman Feb 2020 #16

Message auto-removed Name removed Feb 2020 #15

I can't imagine him finishing 5th, but 4th is possible and would be devastating. Garrett78 Feb 2020 #12

I think it is chrystal balling and way outsizes Iowa's impact on a much larger picture. I don't know emmaverybo Feb 2020 #5

Not enough people care about 538 for it to influence anything HowardZinnfandel Feb 2020 #14

A model, not polling. And a model based on the results of one state unrepresentative of the emmaverybo Feb 2020 #3