Our Post-Iowa Primary Forecast Is Up, And Biden's Chances Are Down

[emmaverybo]

17. COULD matter, or not. Voter's faith in Biden'a electability could take a hit,

and that translate into a loss in Nevada and S.C., but on the other hand, the competitors you expect it follows would win those states have weak to zero AA support and other limitations.

Voters as easily could go by future prospects, questioning Buttigieg, Sanders’, or Warren’s ability to win the GE. You assume voters would see Biden as a weak prospect for not placing better in two small states, while also assuming, on the same limited basis, that voters suddenly perceive one of the above as the nation’s savior.

The candidates themselves surely are not changed essentially by what occurs in Iowa and N.H., but voters’ perceptions of them are so drastically altered?

Maybe the media starts pumping Biden because, shorn of the aura of inevitable electability, he’ s suddenly interesting, an underdog! You absolutely can not control for all events. Anything can and does happen. I think Biden is too strong a candidate and too widely respected and liked to be vanquished by the outcome in Iowa and NH, much as placing first or second would give him a boost.