Democratic Primaries

TexasTowelie

(127,843 posts)

178. No, because Bernie is running to achieve one event which is to become president.

Thu Feb 6, 2020, 06:22 AM

Feb 2020

He is eliminated from contention in 61 instances by not getting the nomination. In another 14 instances he wins the nomination and loses the general election. The remaining 25 instances he is projected to win. There are 75 losing scenarios and 25 winning scenarios. That doesn't equate to having a 64% probability of winning the election, because if he doesn't get the nomination then the probability of him winning is zero (barring a third party run).

If Bernie does win the nomination, then the probabilities will be recalculated and the probabilities of him winning the election will likely increase to somewhere between 45%-55% since he will no longer face any Democratic competitors. However, he has to win the nomination first which is why his current probability of winning the general election is at 25%.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

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If we nominate a socialist... we will get 4 more years of what we saw tonight [View all] scheming daemons Feb 2020 OP

+1000. dware Feb 2020 #1

vote blue no matter who (that's for us) lapfog_1 Feb 2020 #15

I 100% agree, dware Feb 2020 #23

We all have our opinions don't we? EOM tiredtoo Feb 2020 #2

Sure do... here's mine: nominate BERNIE and retire the corporate socialist tRump!! InAbLuEsTaTe Feb 2020 #68

oh dear samnsara Feb 2020 #113

IS that projection based on some actual analysis? brooklynite Feb 2020 #126

Socialism is merely a label that means different things to different people vlyons Feb 2020 #187

In a race between a Socialist and a psychopath BlueIdaho Feb 2020 #3

Rick Wilson said MontanaMama Feb 2020 #8

Sad but true... damn it! nt. BlueIdaho Feb 2020 #9

And yesterday Steve Schmidt said radical noodle Feb 2020 #34

Nice! BlueIdaho Feb 2020 #38

Steve Schmidt the Republican? Fuck him, I have no fucks to give about any Republicans opinion. Autumn Feb 2020 #124

Of course you don't radical noodle Feb 2020 #132

No I wouldn't. Know why? Republicans hate Bernie and are against anything he wants to enact. Autumn Feb 2020 #138

Who exactly supported a third party candidate? radical noodle Feb 2020 #165

One of our Dem candidates has endorsed, donated and supported some Republicans over Democrats. Autumn Feb 2020 #169

I try to judge everything on an individual basis radical noodle Feb 2020 #170

As do I, and yes I know the circumstances of both. I'm sure you do also. Autumn Feb 2020 #171

Yup, and then the psychopath gets to appoint Supreme Court Justices. unitedwethrive Feb 2020 #43

Steve Schmidt is correct Gothmog Feb 2020 #96

+1 Historic NY Feb 2020 #157

No. It's much easier, and faster, to just yell "PUTIN" instead. ntn JoeOtterbein Feb 2020 #4

+1,000 InAbLuEsTaTe Feb 2020 #183

Yes. krissey Feb 2020 #5

No matter who gets nominated in the Democratic Party, they'll be branded a socialist anyway! TheBlackAdder Feb 2020 #80

Republicans always try, you are right. It isn't bought. This will be fact, in name itself. krissey Feb 2020 #81

That's a false meme. Neither Biden, Pete or Klobuchar are socialist. Bernie is redstateblues Feb 2020 #82

Just wait until after the primary is over. Socialism will be one of the top 10 GOP terms. TheBlackAdder Feb 2020 #84

Not Bloomberg, no one can say he is a socialist N/T I_M_Blue_2 Feb 2020 #83

Does it really matter? They'll use the term, since Bloomberg wants to add progressive issues. TheBlackAdder Feb 2020 #85

Republicans can - and will - say it. dchill Feb 2020 #105

But with some candidates it is more believable than it is with others I_M_Blue_2 Feb 2020 #161

We thought that last time, when we went with the centrist. Guess what we got? DanTex Feb 2020 #6

We got three million more votes than Trump. Mr.Bill Feb 2020 #11

And yet, Trump is president. That's the problem. DanTex Feb 2020 #21

Again, with Russian interference. dware Feb 2020 #27

Which will happen again. If we have a plan that only works in a world without DanTex Feb 2020 #30

BS will get hammered with or without Russian interference. dware Feb 2020 #32

It's not a fact, its an opinion. Kentonio Feb 2020 #100

Yes, people are entitled to their opinions... even if they are dead wrong!! InAbLuEsTaTe Feb 2020 #184

Oh, honey! Ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha! NurseJackie Feb 2020 #13

I love that NurseJackie. dware Feb 2020 #18

It's true though. Trump really is president. DanTex Feb 2020 #25

I think you're getting confused about cause-and-effect... NurseJackie Feb 2020 #28

lol.. Cha Feb 2020 #88

Unfortunately, yes, the last time I checked, tRumpty Dumbty indeed was the PEE-resident. InAbLuEsTaTe Feb 2020 #185

Wrong. dware Feb 2020 #14

You think there won't be Russian interference again? DanTex Feb 2020 #22

How does that change anything I just said? nt dware Feb 2020 #26

It doesn't change it, just makes it irrelevant. DanTex Feb 2020 #36

The difference is that if BS is our candidate, dware Feb 2020 #41

Well, that's arguable. DanTex Feb 2020 #48

You keep leaving out the fact that the Centrist did win, dware Feb 2020 #52

OK, but that's not the kind of win I'm interested in. DanTex Feb 2020 #56

Well then, that wouldn't mean BS as our candidate. dware Feb 2020 #57

Or maybe it would. DanTex Feb 2020 #58

But it did work the last time, but for Russian interference. dware Feb 2020 #63

But there will be Russian interference again this time. DanTex Feb 2020 #64

This country will not vote for a far left socialist for President, dware Feb 2020 #66

So why didn't the 'strategy" you propose win with Democrats who were doing the actual voting? ehrnst Feb 2020 #150

Your makin perfect sense Dan, as usual... this time tho will be different, with Bernie at the helm! InAbLuEsTaTe Feb 2020 #182

Post removed Post removed Feb 2020 #24

And yet, Trump is president. DanTex Feb 2020 #33

In a race between a socialist and a psychopath BlueIdaho Feb 2020 #35

Why in heaven's name radical noodle Feb 2020 #39

It could. I'm just saying we already tried the path more traveled. DanTex Feb 2020 #46

We have to beat trump radical noodle Feb 2020 #51

Yes I agree with that for sure. DanTex Feb 2020 #53

We have that in common radical noodle Feb 2020 #65

because of russia! samnsara Feb 2020 #114

Exactly the danger, Will Robinson, history can and will repeat itself just as you warn lambchopp59 Feb 2020 #31

Clinton is not a centralist. She is just right of Sanders. Harris is more left than Sanders. krissey Feb 2020 #72

How dare you speak the truth?! InAbLuEsTaTe Feb 2020 #79

An excellent question but the responses to it, mostly all echo chamber... mojowork_n Feb 2020 #93

Bingo! Kentonio Feb 2020 #99

after we lose the house and senate worse there will no need for SOTU speeches nt msongs Feb 2020 #7

Don't forget, he was on the ballot as a COMMUNIST in 1980. Zolorp Feb 2020 #10

I haven't forgotten, and neither has the GOP... and they'll make sure everyone knows it. NurseJackie Feb 2020 #16

I only wish it had been brought out in 2016 Zolorp Feb 2020 #37

Sanders wasn't thoroughly vetted in 2016 PatSeg Feb 2020 #136

We can not afford political suicide. OneMoreCupOfCoffee Feb 2020 #17

Jesus Christ! nt UniteFightBack Feb 2020 #60

I'm hearing the tune I've been singing tirebiter Feb 2020 #12

I agree HarlanPepper Feb 2020 #19

Voting Democrat Progressive2020 Feb 2020 #20

Exactly BernieBabies Feb 2020 #47

I agree, give tRumpy the Clown the candidate he fears most... Bernie!! InAbLuEsTaTe Feb 2020 #29

Winning combo either way. lambchopp59 Feb 2020 #45

Couldnt agree more, that wonderful combo would EASILY defeat that CORPORATE socialist tRump. InAbLuEsTaTe Feb 2020 #131

If we're lucky it would only be four HarlanPepper Feb 2020 #40

I see no evidence that this is true. Gore1FL Feb 2020 #42

How we win is by having a nominee to support who can beat Trump scheming daemons Feb 2020 #44

And let us not forget his saying that the Iran hostages dware Feb 2020 #49

He's also said he will raise taxes on the middle class HarlanPepper Feb 2020 #50

Mondale comes to mind. Zolorp Feb 2020 #110

Nonsense Gore1FL Feb 2020 #55

There aren't enough registered Democrats BlueIdaho Feb 2020 #59

Bernie is exactly the person we need to bring back the disaffected working class vote Kentonio Feb 2020 #103

The evidence is common sense. nt UniteFightBack Feb 2020 #62

Yeah. Sure. Gore1FL Feb 2020 #163

Predictit thinks Bernie would beat Trump Cicada Feb 2020 #54

As a math major and statistician TexasTowelie Feb 2020 #90

I majored in math too Cicada Feb 2020 #92

In that case, you should be aware of "independent events" in statistics. TexasTowelie Feb 2020 #94

The events are not independent Cicada Feb 2020 #98

But the odds are being made for each event being treated independently. TexasTowelie Feb 2020 #111

Example Cicada Feb 2020 #173

That is not the way that the people making the odds do it though. TexasTowelie Feb 2020 #174

Bernie is on the ballot only 39 times out of 100. He wins 25 times. Cicada Feb 2020 #175

No, because Bernie is running to achieve one event which is to become president. TexasTowelie Feb 2020 #178

He is on the ballot 39 times and wins 25 times Cicada Feb 2020 #179

No. TexasTowelie Feb 2020 #181

I recall in 2008 how Obama would lose and we needed someone electable like Clinton. Gore1FL Feb 2020 #164

Bulletin colsohlibgal Feb 2020 #61

Gotta sell that. HarlanPepper Feb 2020 #87

"Medicare is Socialism." How? AncientGeezer Feb 2020 #162

Thanks for the Red Scare jcmaine72 Feb 2020 #67

I am not talking about a socialist getting elected..I am talking about one getting nominated scheming daemons Feb 2020 #70

Yeah, just like Trump had "no path to victory". jcmaine72 Feb 2020 #74

National Polls Progressive2020 Feb 2020 #76

Given the choice between a DEMOCRATIC Socialist like Bernie or a CORPORATE Socialist like tRumpy... InAbLuEsTaTe Feb 2020 #186

Yeah Progressive2020 Feb 2020 #71

Excellent post. I concur. jcmaine72 Feb 2020 #75

Oh, I agree 100%. SergeStorms Feb 2020 #69

If the Democratic Party nominate a socialist, trump will win 45+ states Gothmog Feb 2020 #73

I agree nt doc03 Feb 2020 #77

Right now I'm feeling like that will be the case regardless democrattotheend Feb 2020 #78

Toxically nearsighted. Jirel Feb 2020 #86

KR!!!!! Cha Feb 2020 #89

Agreed MFM008 Feb 2020 #91

trump would love to run against socialism Gothmog Feb 2020 #95

Yup but the Sanders and Warren cheerleaders don't want to hear it.nt helpisontheway Feb 2020 #97

Warren is the smartest capitalist in this race. Why are blm Feb 2020 #118

Scare tactics are only the province of the right. LonePirate Feb 2020 #151

#VoteBlueNoMatterWho Mike Niendorff Feb 2020 #101

Independents will not vote blue no matter who texasfiddler Feb 2020 #102

I repeat: Mike Niendorff Feb 2020 #106

I could say, gab13by13 Feb 2020 #104

Trump is a result of 30 years of propaganda texasfiddler Feb 2020 #107

thank you!! well said. defeating trump* is the ONLY thing we need to concentrate on.. samnsara Feb 2020 #108

Good thing no Socialists are running Martin Eden Feb 2020 #109

A former Communist is running Zolorp Feb 2020 #112

Democrat now means not a Socialist Martin Eden Feb 2020 #116

He is still a former Communist Zolorp Feb 2020 #117

There are several reasons why I'm not voting for Sanders in this primary Martin Eden Feb 2020 #125

But one candidate proudly proclaimed he was Socialist for years. Zolorp Feb 2020 #128

OH NOES A COMMUNIST Act_of_Reparation Feb 2020 #120

Yes, a Communist Zolorp Feb 2020 #121

Post removed Post removed Feb 2020 #146

I take that as a personal insult for simply telling the truth Zolorp Feb 2020 #148

Yeah, this red-baiting sure is satisfying... in a nostalgic kind of way. Act_of_Reparation Feb 2020 #147

It is not "red-baiting" it is 100% truth Zolorp Feb 2020 #149

So what were you up to in 1980? Act_of_Reparation Feb 2020 #152

I was a 17 year old out campaigning for Carter and had just enlisted in the US Army. Zolorp Feb 2020 #153

Serious question: Act_of_Reparation Feb 2020 #155

ABSOLUTELY! Zolorp Feb 2020 #156

"Bernie Sanders: Workers should control the means of production" LongtimeAZDem Feb 2020 #119

Workers are not the government Martin Eden Feb 2020 #122

It doesn't matter. I know the difference, you know the difference, and it doesn't matter LongtimeAZDem Feb 2020 #123

I never said I thought that Martin Eden Feb 2020 #127

Bernie Sanders calls himself a socialist. That makes it a Bernie Sanders talking point LongtimeAZDem Feb 2020 #129

He calls himself a Democratic Socialist Martin Eden Feb 2020 #134

So what? You think anyone cares about that distinction? LongtimeAZDem Feb 2020 #137

The election is about the next 8 years not just Trump Blues Heron Feb 2020 #115

Republican friend would vote for Biden mommymarine2003 Feb 2020 #130

Reality colsohlibgal Feb 2020 #133

Once they get Maduro out of Venezuela they can have the MSM... Anon-C Feb 2020 #135

trump would destroy a socialist candidate Gothmog Feb 2020 #139

Do you all remember? tiredtoo Feb 2020 #140

This message was self-deleted by its author LongtimeAZDem Feb 2020 #141

You are doing no favors to the Democratic party. tiredtoo Feb 2020 #142

This message was self-deleted by its author LongtimeAZDem Feb 2020 #143

As you are doing now. tiredtoo Feb 2020 #144

This message was self-deleted by its author LongtimeAZDem Feb 2020 #145

If we nominate an uninspiring centrist... we will get 4 more years of what we saw last night. LonePirate Feb 2020 #154

A bot? lsewpershad Feb 2020 #158

That's how we won in 2016 IronLionZion Feb 2020 #159

Yet polls show Sanders beating Trump nationally and in the swing states... thesquanderer Feb 2020 #160

yes, the promises of having a government that actually does things for its citizens pales compared ProfessorPlum Feb 2020 #166

Not "we will do nothing for you," but " I will not make promises I can not keep." emmaverybo Feb 2020 #180

uh huh. In other words "the rich won't agree to help people, therefore neither will I" ProfessorPlum Feb 2020 #188

She is for a number of policies that will help people from free two year college to affordable emmaverybo Feb 2020 #190

thank you very much ProfessorPlum Feb 2020 #191

We were told this last time, too. Cuthbert Allgood Feb 2020 #167

This message was self-deleted by its author geralmar Feb 2020 #168

A socialist will kill down ballot candidates Gothmog Feb 2020 #172

It won't be "4 more years" of what we saw... Mike Nelson Feb 2020 #176

trump and others are using Socialist, and branding it as really really bad duforsure Feb 2020 #177

KICK Cha Feb 2020 #189

The grandson of GHW Bush is running this ad attacking socialism Gothmog Feb 2020 #192