538: You'll never know which candidate is electable

[Garrett78]

12. That and the piece about Bitecofer are far more reality-based than what passes...

...for conventional wisdom around here. As I posted yesterday:

The conventional assumptions about swing voters and so-called independents is wrong. True swing voters aren't nearly as great in number as some believe. And they aren't moderates or middle-of-the-road voters. They're fickle voters who tend to swing against the status quo or party that's been in power. Today's average independent, on the other hand, is more partisan (while claiming to dislike partisanship) than the average party-affiliated voter of the 1970s. There've been numerous studies confirming this.

Turn out the base, turn out the base, turn out the base. And get young people fired up.

The electorate has changed over the years. Bitecofer is right. Conventional wisdom no longer holds weight. We fail to recognize this at our peril. Selecting a candidate or running a campaign based on outdated notions, based on appealing to a small percentage of fickle and largely ignorant people spread out across 50 states, is the height of stupidity.