Democratic Primaries

LaurenOlimina

(1,165 posts)

13. 538 is predicting a Sanders win in both states now.

Thu Feb 13, 2020, 04:08 PM

Feb 2020

"Sanders is forecasted to win an average of 31% of the vote in South Carolina. In 80% of simulations, he wins between 16% and 48% of the vote. He has a 1 in 2 (53%) chance of winning the most votes, a bit better than the second most likely winner, Biden, who has a 1 in 3 (32%) chance."

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primary-forecast/south-carolina/

"Sanders is forecasted to win an average of 40% of the vote in Nevada. In 80% of simulations, he wins between 22% and 58% of the vote. He has a 2 in 3 (68%) chance of winning the most votes, much better than the second most likely winner, Biden, who has a 1 in 7 (15%) chance."

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primary-forecast/nevada/

Details are at the links.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

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Okay, let's get started. Here are the most recent aggregate polls for SC and NV [View all] UncleNoel Feb 2020 OP

Those numbers are about to move. LaurenOlimina Feb 2020 #1

Pete has an AA problem in SC and Amy has not polled well with AA voters either. UncleNoel Feb 2020 #6

Which was a known factor in those polls... LaurenOlimina Feb 2020 #11

Kick for Biden Cha Feb 2020 #2

Didn't you hear? ... Hermit-The-Prog Feb 2020 #10

What we know so far ... Biden 'voters' don't show up. denem Feb 2020 #3

When was he leading in the polls in Iowa and NH? UncleNoel Feb 2020 #8

Certainly was, on more than a few occasions. denem Feb 2020 #9

Nevada is a closed primary. Dems went blue in two out of 16 counties in 2016. ancianita Feb 2020 #4

Well, I think Klobuchar may be the one getting a bounce obamanut2012 Feb 2020 #5

Old polls are like old fish 4139 Feb 2020 #7

Doubly so with Biden. LaurenOlimina Feb 2020 #12

538 is predicting a Sanders win in both states now. LaurenOlimina Feb 2020 #13

Worthless squirecam Feb 2020 #15

538 is rubbish. BlueIdaho Feb 2020 #16

You go, Joe. Laelth Feb 2020 #14