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Joe BidenCongratulations to our presumptive Democratic nominee, Joe Biden!

Response to Jim_S (Reply #8)

Tue Feb 18, 2020, 01:00 AM

12. I mentioned Bitecofer in the following post about people misunderstanding the electorate:


Last edited Tue Feb 18, 2020, 01:39 AM - Edit history (1)

There are actually people on this site who think it would be wise to deny Sanders if he has a plurality of delegates and to allow racist, misogynistic, bribery kingpin Bloomberg to buy the nomination. That's positively insane. Much of this seems to stem from a misunderstanding about the electorate, in particular so-called independents, swing voters and the disenchanted non-voter/3rd party voter. Those trying to suggest that the electorate of today is no different than it was in the early 1970s, late 1980s, 1990s or even 10 years ago are terribly misguided.

Opposition to the status quo is the driving force in the US today. The biggest mistake people make is assuming "independent" and "swing voter" are synonymous with "moderate," and that they have some clearly defined ideology that's a mix of liberal and conservative positions.

Today's so-called independents are more partisan (more likely to always vote for the same party) than the average party-affiliated voter of the 1970s. They're also less likely to actually vote than the party-affiliated, partly due to being disenchanted with the status quo.

And true swing voters aren't as great in number as some claim--more importantly, what they tend to swing against is the status quo or party in power. It's not a well-defined ideology - some mix of conservative and liberal views - or a party platform that dictates how/if they vote. Rather, it's a sense that things ain't right and the boat needs to be rocked.

Conventional wisdom of the past is no longer wise, and we fail to recognize that at our peril. But people like Carville have a really hard time accepting that their formula is outdated. The notion that we should select a candidate or run a campaign based on appealing to some imagined mass of undecided middle-of-the-road voters or winning over the MAGA hat wearers is dangerously misguided. And the Trump voters who have abandoned Trump over the last 3 years aren't going back to Trump no matter who we nominate--okay, maybe there are some who would, but they're greatly outnumbered by those who would be disgusted by Bloomberg, by those who will only vote Dem if Sanders is the nominee, and by those who won't give a shit who the Dem nominee is.

Turn out the base, inspire young people and don't alienate persons of color. That has to be the focus. Get turnout to be closer to 2008 levels than 2016 levels.

Dems should take the following articles to heart:


https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/02/06/rachel-bitecofer-profile-election-forecasting-new-theory-108944 (the headline is misleading, as that's not what she says, but what she actually does say should be heeded)



Edit: And here's another article for those who apparently think our 2018 success was the result of Trump voters switching sides: https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/11/10/18076872/trump-46-percent-solition. Simply put, a lot of folks really, really misunderstand the electorate.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:

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Garrett78 Feb 2020 OP
catrose Feb 2020 #1
LongtimeAZDem Feb 2020 #2
Jim_S Feb 2020 #6
LongtimeAZDem Feb 2020 #7
Jim_S Feb 2020 #8
LineLineLineLineLineReply I mentioned Bitecofer in the following post about people misunderstanding the electorate:
Garrett78 Feb 2020 #12
Garrett78 Feb 2020 #18
CalFione Feb 2020 #3
UniteFightBack Feb 2020 #5
Jim_S Feb 2020 #9
CalFione Feb 2020 #10
Garrett78 Feb 2020 #14
Garrett78 Feb 2020 #17
MoonlitKnight Feb 2020 #20
brooklynite Feb 2020 #4
Gravitycollapse Feb 2020 #16
stopbush Feb 2020 #11
JohnnyRingo Feb 2020 #13
Garrett78 Feb 2020 #15
gollygee Feb 2020 #19
guillaumeb Feb 2020 #21
McCamy Taylor Feb 2020 #22
Deero Feb 2020 #23
Garrett78 Feb 2020 #24
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