"The Moderate Middle Is A Myth"

[Awsi Dooger]

5. I didn't realize I need to thank Rachel Bitecofer for some of my 2018 wagers

I'll continue to laugh at Rachel Bitecofer and anyone who posts her stuff. She predicted the out party would win big in a first term midterm. Wow, that is incredible. How did she do that? This segment of a linked article from the OP was particularly revealing:

"Bitecofer hasn’t exactly been clairvoyant: Her original Senate prediction was off in 2018. She didn’t anticipate the surge in GOP turnout that would match the surge in Democratic turnout in places where the demographics still favored Republicans. She thought Democrats would win Florida, and maybe even Texas, and that the Georgia governor’s race was winnable. What she didn’t count on at the time was that negative partisanship can work both ways, even when there is one party in power,..."

I want to thank Rachel Bitcofer and others for somehow believing the senate was in play in 2018. That was my second largest wager of that cycle. My largest wager was on Ted Cruz. I notice that race was on Bitecofer's stupidity list also. Yes, a Democrat had a huge opportunity in a state with 43% self-identified conservatives. The turnout will just swamp all the foundational realities, won't it Rachel?

I also wagered against Abrams in Georgia. This Bitecofer lady may have helped my pricing all over the place, even if I didn't realize it at the time. She was on every sucker race. No wonder those numbers were such bargains. The Dunces of Turnout at work.

As I emphasized in 2018 one of the reasons the senate was almost no chance is that Tennessee is the new Alaska in terms of incompetent polling. The polls placing Bredesen close in that race were ridiculous and did not represent the true nature of that state at all in federal races. Recent Tennessee polls have underestimated GOP margins by 10% or more.