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Joe BidenCongratulations to our presumptive Democratic nominee, Joe Biden!
In the discussion thread: "The Moderate Middle Is A Myth" [View all]

Response to Garrett78 (Original post)

Wed Feb 19, 2020, 05:38 AM

6. The moderate swing middle was on display in Wisconsin 2016


Bernie Sanders supporters conveniently like to ignore the difference between that Wisconsin senate outcome and presidential outcome. Moderate Hillary didn't seriously contest the state and lost to Trump by roughly .8%. The favorite son and considerably more liberal Russ Feingold lost to the joke Ron Johnson by 3.4%.

Same day. Same electorate. A net gap of 2.6%. Trump didn't come close to 50% against a moderate but Johnson managed 50.2% against Feingold. It is not impossible to overcome .8% with superior messaging. A 3.4% deficit is another matter entirely.

That example alone devastates the notion that swing voters don't exist and that ideological variance does not matter, or that small numbers do not matter. It is exactly the type of thing many of us are concerned about with Bernie Sanders. Wisconsin is a swing state because it mirrors the nation with 9% more self-identified conservatives than liberals. If you force a self-proclaimed socialist in states like that you not only weaken your percentage among moderates but you severely uptick the fear factor in leaners from the other side who don't always vote.

The danger in Bernie is not that we lose like 1972 or 1988. The danger is that we turn a rightful 2% victory into a 1% defeat in vital states like Wisconsin.

Put charming Amy out there and I know how those moderates will vote. Trump and surrogates can scream socialist all they want.

Per my other post in this thread, I still can't get over the notion that Rachel Bitecofer thought we had a chance in the senate -- given that 2018 map -- or that Beto was going to win Texas.

Go get 'em, Rachel.

The power of self-promotion indeed. She reminds me of the loudmouths at horse tracks who give out one winner and suddenly have loads of desperate followers at their feet.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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