Democratic Primaries

brooklynite

(96,882 posts) Wed Feb 19, 2020, 06:07 PM Feb 2020

The current 538 "best guess" estimate of delegates is: [View all]

Sanders 1595
Bloomberg 862
Biden 838
Buttigieg 314
Warren 233
Klobuchar 112

If Bloomberg, Biden, Buttigieg and Klobuchar merged their delegates (53%) behind a moderate candidate, that would be "wrong". Correct?

If so, what do you actually imagine would happen at contested or brokered Convention?

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

106 replies

= new reply since forum marked as read

Highlight:

The current 538 "best guess" estimate of delegates is: [View all] brooklynite Feb 2020 OP

What do you mean wrong? squirecam Feb 2020 #1

My understanding is that if Sanders is ahead in delegates, no matter how many... brooklynite Feb 2020 #2

There is a difference between squirecam Feb 2020 #9

the nominee is a majority of 50% + 1 not a plurality of 30-29-15 etc nt msongs Feb 2020 #15

Not "no matter how many" FBaggins Feb 2020 #55

They're not differentiating. TwilightZone Feb 2020 #61

Superdelegates changing the will of the voters squirecam Feb 2020 #62

OH NO Horizens Feb 2020 #60

Some are insisting that Sanders get the nod for any size lead as long as it's a plurality. TwilightZone Feb 2020 #12

That amount of a "lead" is small enough squirecam Feb 2020 #17

40 to 45% of the pledged delgates for Bernie and no other candidates Celerity Feb 2020 #75

That's why we need all of the centrist candidates except one to drop. PTWB Feb 2020 #90

If everyone stays in... nt. BlueIdaho Feb 2020 #3

It will likely never be 1v1. squirecam Feb 2020 #5

Until they run out of money BlueIdaho Feb 2020 #8

How are they fracturing the party? squirecam Feb 2020 #10

Bernie IS the unifying candidate... he unifies the working class and low-income voters InAbLuEsTaTe Feb 2020 #28

Bernie unifies the majority of electoral votes in the general election against him. CalFione Feb 2020 #38

+1 Sloumeau Feb 2020 #42

-1 InAbLuEsTaTe Feb 2020 #73

Lol. With his marginalizing of those establishment Democrats, and the hiring of Jill Stein still_one Feb 2020 #59

Bernie+Elizabeth least corrupted by Billionaires. eom at140 Feb 2020 #101

You'll get no argument from me on that one!! InAbLuEsTaTe Feb 2020 #102

Bloomberg/Biden have more combined (estimated, of course) than Sanders. TwilightZone Feb 2020 #4

Outside of a few rogues, the pledged delegates would reflect those totals in the first round madville Feb 2020 #6

What exactly is a clear lead? squirecam Feb 2020 #11

The example in the OP n/t madville Feb 2020 #31

Because you say so? squirecam Feb 2020 #39

I would think 700+ delegates meets everyone's definition of a clear lead. Garrett78 Feb 2020 #74

Enough to cause chaos, not everyone. PTWB Feb 2020 #92

Which is why there WON'T be chaos. They know Bernie's the obvious choice to assure victory InAbLuEsTaTe Feb 2020 #29

I love country music!! ehrnst Feb 2020 #63

She had five husbands unc70 Feb 2020 #86

Yes, but that song... he's a loser, but she's gonna stand by him no matter what. ehrnst Feb 2020 #93

Get ready for some ticked off Sanders supporters. Hoyt Feb 2020 #7

lol that's the standard nt msongs Feb 2020 #13

LOL. Agreed. nt Sloumeau Feb 2020 #44

Not gonna be a problem, cuz Bernie is winning the nomination on the 1st ballot!! InAbLuEsTaTe Feb 2020 #68

trumpsters will love that. Hoyt Feb 2020 #71

The Automatic Delegates AKA super delegates. Do In Fact Represent We The People ahoysrcsm Feb 2020 #99

Don't know about "wrong" but it would be undemocratic. DanTex Feb 2020 #14

math again, if more people do NOT WANT you than want you you should not be the nominee nt msongs Feb 2020 #16

In that case we would end up with nobody as nominee. DanTex Feb 2020 #25

If Bloomberg and Biden united squirecam Feb 2020 #51

This isn't undemocratic. squirecam Feb 2020 #19

It's based on majority rule, not plurality. TwilightZone Feb 2020 #20

Bernie currently polls as the most popular second choice. DanTex Feb 2020 #24

Based on what? squirecam Feb 2020 #27

Based on polls. Bernie expands his lead when you include second choices. DanTex Feb 2020 #36

You are citing a national poll? squirecam Feb 2020 #45

Yes. I have no idea why you think it's useless. DanTex Feb 2020 #49

National polls have always been useless. squirecam Feb 2020 #50

Did you read the post - they explained why it's useless. ehrnst Feb 2020 #54

What it means when Bernie is top second choice is people are not Prosper Feb 2020 #105

Second-choice polls taken now are meaningless. TwilightZone Feb 2020 #32

The one I posted is for Nevada squirecam Feb 2020 #34

In the context of a contested convention it is. TwilightZone Feb 2020 #46

If that happens Turin_C3PO Feb 2020 #41

I'm not sure I agree. TwilightZone Feb 2020 #56

Ugh....READ THE RULES! sdfernando Feb 2020 #30

I know it's not against the rules. I'm just saying it's not democratic. DanTex Feb 2020 #40

Caucuses are not democratic either but thats the rules that are played.... sdfernando Feb 2020 #48

No, giving people a ballot and telling them who they have to vote for is not democratic. TwilightZone Feb 2020 #57

+1000. But there standards for Sanders, then there those for everyone else. ehrnst Feb 2020 #69

What do you mean by "not democratic?" ehrnst Feb 2020 #64

Rules were meant to be changed... just ask Mike Bloomberg how he got on the debate stage. InAbLuEsTaTe Feb 2020 #103

What do you mean by "not democratic?" ehrnst Feb 2020 #67

Is that before super-delegates? Renew Deal Feb 2020 #18

1990 TwilightZone Feb 2020 #21

538 squirecam Feb 2020 #22

Actually, the adding up of delegates is actually what happens in contested conventions. Sloumeau Feb 2020 #23

The moderates would have to join. squirecam Feb 2020 #26

I suspect the moderates will join and save the nation from disaster. honest.abe Feb 2020 #33

Gawd I hope so. apcalc Feb 2020 #53

If the leader in delegates Turin_C3PO Feb 2020 #35

Not if that candidate rallies behind the ticket. CalFione Feb 2020 #43

Yes. squirecam Feb 2020 #47

The candidate in question Codeine Feb 2020 #87

IMO, it might come to that tough decision Moderateguy Feb 2020 #72

There is nothing "wrong" in a brokered convention. Zolorp Feb 2020 #37

If accurate, we are so screwed. apcalc Feb 2020 #52

Why? squirecam Feb 2020 #66

A LITTLE HISTROY Horizens Feb 2020 #58

I'm sure Bloomberg could just buy all the delegates he needs Walleye Feb 2020 #65

SERIOUSLY!! InAbLuEsTaTe Feb 2020 #70

Yes, he might be able to. Sloumeau Feb 2020 #79

Funny. I did the same math in my head Walleye Feb 2020 #81

Sad but true... and that some Democrats wouldn't question that idea is what's truly sad!! InAbLuEsTaTe Feb 2020 #83

If Biden, Buttigieg and Klobuchar merged delegates, they would still have less than Sanders Fiendish Thingy Feb 2020 #76

You are wrong squirecam Feb 2020 #77

No YOU are wrong- based on the numbers in the OP: Fiendish Thingy Feb 2020 #89

This is true if Bloomberg is excluded, but squirecam Feb 2020 #95

Looks like four more years of Trump. Nice work we've done redstateblues Feb 2020 #78

There are so many ways that this could end up a total nightmare. :) nt Sloumeau Feb 2020 #80

I would speculate that if those were the final numbers The Mouth Feb 2020 #82

Here's MY take Moderateguy Feb 2020 #85

Your job here is almost done. ret5hd Feb 2020 #84

His job of being one of our most valued Codeine Feb 2020 #88

You're too kind... brooklynite Feb 2020 #91

If Bernie goes into the convention with twice as many delegates as the second place candidate, and totodeinhere Feb 2020 #94

What do you mean by taken away? squirecam Feb 2020 #96

You apparently do not understand the process. Super delegates get to vote on the totodeinhere Feb 2020 #97

I'm not talking about super delegates taking the #2 person squirecam Feb 2020 #98

BIIIIIINNGGOOOOO!! InAbLuEsTaTe Feb 2020 #104

FOLLOWUP: everyone agrees that it's up to the Convention to decide...except Sanders. brooklynite Feb 2020 #100

Oh, of course it's up to the convention The Mouth Feb 2020 #106