Democratic Primaries

squirecam

(2,706 posts)

45. You are citing a national poll?

Wed Feb 19, 2020, 06:56 PM

Feb 2020

It’s useless for second choices. How do you know the Warren supporter in CA’s second choice vs the Warren supporters second choice in Texas. Or how those choices affect any given state? You can’t.

The poll I showed from NEVADA tells a much different story. And that was Bernie’s best poll.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

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The current 538 "best guess" estimate of delegates is: [View all] brooklynite Feb 2020 OP

What do you mean wrong? squirecam Feb 2020 #1

My understanding is that if Sanders is ahead in delegates, no matter how many... brooklynite Feb 2020 #2

There is a difference between squirecam Feb 2020 #9

the nominee is a majority of 50% + 1 not a plurality of 30-29-15 etc nt msongs Feb 2020 #15

Not "no matter how many" FBaggins Feb 2020 #55

They're not differentiating. TwilightZone Feb 2020 #61

Superdelegates changing the will of the voters squirecam Feb 2020 #62

OH NO Horizens Feb 2020 #60

Some are insisting that Sanders get the nod for any size lead as long as it's a plurality. TwilightZone Feb 2020 #12

That amount of a "lead" is small enough squirecam Feb 2020 #17

40 to 45% of the pledged delgates for Bernie and no other candidates Celerity Feb 2020 #75

That's why we need all of the centrist candidates except one to drop. PTWB Feb 2020 #90

If everyone stays in... nt. BlueIdaho Feb 2020 #3

It will likely never be 1v1. squirecam Feb 2020 #5

Until they run out of money BlueIdaho Feb 2020 #8

How are they fracturing the party? squirecam Feb 2020 #10

Bernie IS the unifying candidate... he unifies the working class and low-income voters InAbLuEsTaTe Feb 2020 #28

Bernie unifies the majority of electoral votes in the general election against him. CalFione Feb 2020 #38

+1 Sloumeau Feb 2020 #42

-1 InAbLuEsTaTe Feb 2020 #73

Lol. With his marginalizing of those establishment Democrats, and the hiring of Jill Stein still_one Feb 2020 #59

Bernie+Elizabeth least corrupted by Billionaires. eom at140 Feb 2020 #101

You'll get no argument from me on that one!! InAbLuEsTaTe Feb 2020 #102

Bloomberg/Biden have more combined (estimated, of course) than Sanders. TwilightZone Feb 2020 #4

Outside of a few rogues, the pledged delegates would reflect those totals in the first round madville Feb 2020 #6

What exactly is a clear lead? squirecam Feb 2020 #11

The example in the OP n/t madville Feb 2020 #31

Because you say so? squirecam Feb 2020 #39

I would think 700+ delegates meets everyone's definition of a clear lead. Garrett78 Feb 2020 #74

Enough to cause chaos, not everyone. PTWB Feb 2020 #92

Which is why there WON'T be chaos. They know Bernie's the obvious choice to assure victory InAbLuEsTaTe Feb 2020 #29

I love country music!! ehrnst Feb 2020 #63

She had five husbands unc70 Feb 2020 #86

Yes, but that song... he's a loser, but she's gonna stand by him no matter what. ehrnst Feb 2020 #93

Get ready for some ticked off Sanders supporters. Hoyt Feb 2020 #7

lol that's the standard nt msongs Feb 2020 #13

LOL. Agreed. nt Sloumeau Feb 2020 #44

Not gonna be a problem, cuz Bernie is winning the nomination on the 1st ballot!! InAbLuEsTaTe Feb 2020 #68

trumpsters will love that. Hoyt Feb 2020 #71

The Automatic Delegates AKA super delegates. Do In Fact Represent We The People ahoysrcsm Feb 2020 #99

Don't know about "wrong" but it would be undemocratic. DanTex Feb 2020 #14

math again, if more people do NOT WANT you than want you you should not be the nominee nt msongs Feb 2020 #16

In that case we would end up with nobody as nominee. DanTex Feb 2020 #25

If Bloomberg and Biden united squirecam Feb 2020 #51

This isn't undemocratic. squirecam Feb 2020 #19

It's based on majority rule, not plurality. TwilightZone Feb 2020 #20

Bernie currently polls as the most popular second choice. DanTex Feb 2020 #24

Based on what? squirecam Feb 2020 #27

Based on polls. Bernie expands his lead when you include second choices. DanTex Feb 2020 #36

You are citing a national poll? squirecam Feb 2020 #45

Yes. I have no idea why you think it's useless. DanTex Feb 2020 #49

National polls have always been useless. squirecam Feb 2020 #50

Did you read the post - they explained why it's useless. ehrnst Feb 2020 #54

What it means when Bernie is top second choice is people are not Prosper Feb 2020 #105

Second-choice polls taken now are meaningless. TwilightZone Feb 2020 #32

The one I posted is for Nevada squirecam Feb 2020 #34

In the context of a contested convention it is. TwilightZone Feb 2020 #46

If that happens Turin_C3PO Feb 2020 #41

I'm not sure I agree. TwilightZone Feb 2020 #56

Ugh....READ THE RULES! sdfernando Feb 2020 #30

I know it's not against the rules. I'm just saying it's not democratic. DanTex Feb 2020 #40

Caucuses are not democratic either but thats the rules that are played.... sdfernando Feb 2020 #48

No, giving people a ballot and telling them who they have to vote for is not democratic. TwilightZone Feb 2020 #57

+1000. But there standards for Sanders, then there those for everyone else. ehrnst Feb 2020 #69

What do you mean by "not democratic?" ehrnst Feb 2020 #64

Rules were meant to be changed... just ask Mike Bloomberg how he got on the debate stage. InAbLuEsTaTe Feb 2020 #103

What do you mean by "not democratic?" ehrnst Feb 2020 #67

Is that before super-delegates? Renew Deal Feb 2020 #18

1990 TwilightZone Feb 2020 #21

538 squirecam Feb 2020 #22

Actually, the adding up of delegates is actually what happens in contested conventions. Sloumeau Feb 2020 #23

The moderates would have to join. squirecam Feb 2020 #26

I suspect the moderates will join and save the nation from disaster. honest.abe Feb 2020 #33

Gawd I hope so. apcalc Feb 2020 #53

If the leader in delegates Turin_C3PO Feb 2020 #35

Not if that candidate rallies behind the ticket. CalFione Feb 2020 #43

Yes. squirecam Feb 2020 #47

The candidate in question Codeine Feb 2020 #87

IMO, it might come to that tough decision Moderateguy Feb 2020 #72

There is nothing "wrong" in a brokered convention. Zolorp Feb 2020 #37

If accurate, we are so screwed. apcalc Feb 2020 #52

Why? squirecam Feb 2020 #66

A LITTLE HISTROY Horizens Feb 2020 #58

I'm sure Bloomberg could just buy all the delegates he needs Walleye Feb 2020 #65

SERIOUSLY!! InAbLuEsTaTe Feb 2020 #70

Yes, he might be able to. Sloumeau Feb 2020 #79

Funny. I did the same math in my head Walleye Feb 2020 #81

Sad but true... and that some Democrats wouldn't question that idea is what's truly sad!! InAbLuEsTaTe Feb 2020 #83

If Biden, Buttigieg and Klobuchar merged delegates, they would still have less than Sanders Fiendish Thingy Feb 2020 #76

You are wrong squirecam Feb 2020 #77

No YOU are wrong- based on the numbers in the OP: Fiendish Thingy Feb 2020 #89

This is true if Bloomberg is excluded, but squirecam Feb 2020 #95

Looks like four more years of Trump. Nice work we've done redstateblues Feb 2020 #78

There are so many ways that this could end up a total nightmare. :) nt Sloumeau Feb 2020 #80

I would speculate that if those were the final numbers The Mouth Feb 2020 #82

Here's MY take Moderateguy Feb 2020 #85

Your job here is almost done. ret5hd Feb 2020 #84

His job of being one of our most valued Codeine Feb 2020 #88

You're too kind... brooklynite Feb 2020 #91

If Bernie goes into the convention with twice as many delegates as the second place candidate, and totodeinhere Feb 2020 #94

What do you mean by taken away? squirecam Feb 2020 #96

You apparently do not understand the process. Super delegates get to vote on the totodeinhere Feb 2020 #97

I'm not talking about super delegates taking the #2 person squirecam Feb 2020 #98

BIIIIIINNGGOOOOO!! InAbLuEsTaTe Feb 2020 #104

FOLLOWUP: everyone agrees that it's up to the Convention to decide...except Sanders. brooklynite Feb 2020 #100

Oh, of course it's up to the convention The Mouth Feb 2020 #106