Somehow they are dense enough to believe it is merely a continuation of a primary dynamic, that Sanders will always be on offense, and willing voters flow like water.
Meanwhile as soon as Sanders is the nominee he runs into those impenetrable stacks of self-identified conservatives in state after state. Those stacks are large and not impressed by anything. You don't self-identify as conservative and vote for a socialist. You don't win elections under the mind boggling stupidity that your guy will inspire turnout while the other side sulks on the couch. When there is energy or lack of energy both sides sense it and react accordingly.
And none of this accounts for all the anti-Sanders ads that have been canned and ready for go for 4 years.
The recent Wisconsin polling is a gulp of where we actually are against an incumbent, and not where we stupidly have believed we were for 3+ years. It is the reason I have probably used the word incumbent regarding Trump more that the rest of this site combined since 2017.
There is a very simple reason I bet on Republicans almost 90% of the time. That's where the value is. The formula is always the same: Identify the states with high number of self-identified conservatives but with the dialog and polling overstating the Democrat. Instead of 10/1 favoritism -- where it should be -- the odds drop to laughable territory like 60/40. That sample size includes Texas senate 2018 and Georgia governor 2018 and senate control 2018. In other words, all the races that Rachel Bitecofer totally ignored all the self-identified conservatives lined up the other way, creating virtually zero margin for error for the Democratic nominee.
It's going to be hilarious reading about turnout until November. Just wait until Sanders falls behind in polling. The genius supporters won't budge. They'll insist their guy really has that bonus 2-5% out there.
Meanwhile in Texas senate 2018 that extra 2% would have equated to 170,000 votes. That is the burden. That is the real world. Keep that in mind when Sanders supporters comically throw out terms like extra 2-3% based on turnout. Same thing here in Florida, where 2% will equate to 200,000 vote range in 2020. In Wisconsin that extra 2% is 60,000 votes.
When Bernie Sanders fielded the first question last night and emphasized turnout it was a signal that he has no clue what he is doing. We defeat Donald Trump on preference or not at all and we are on the verge of nominating a guy who wants to limit personal wealth.
Like it or not the single most significant moment of that debate last night was when Bloomberg correctly defined that personal wealth exchange as the greatest gift imaginable for Donald Trump.
Congratulations to our presumptive Democratic nominee, Joe Biden!
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