How large are the various groups of potential voters?

[CalFione]

11. Analyzing and estimating your 5 groups:

1) I think this is a solid 40% of the likely voters.

2) This doesn't exist, really. I lump the Dem-leaning indies into group 1.

3) This group is smaller than you think. It was about 5% of the electorate in 2016.

4) This group is bigger than you think. It was about 10% of the vote in 2016.

5) You vastly underestimate the size of this group. This group is what fueled the blue wave of 2018. And every one of them basically counts as two votes - one taken away from the GOP and added to the Democrats. For example - if there were 100 voters and they were split 50-50... and one of them switches, it is a 2-vote swing because it is now 51-49. Kind of like a pick-six in football when one team is about to score - a 14-point swing.