Reminder: betting markets have Bernie as the *most* electable candidate.

[Awsi Dooger]

20. Comical...try again

The vastly superior way to look at it is that late last fall when Biden was the frontrunner, Democrats were favored to win the White House and Trump was trading below 50%.

Now that Sanders is the frontrunner that has completely reversed. Republicans are favored to win the White House, currently trading at 57%. Trump is above water at 55%.

Bottom line: Trump has been underdog for 2020 throughout his presidency, until we stupidly shifted toward Bernie Sanders.

Go down below these charts and click on the 90 day graphs and you'll see what I mean. There is a direct relationship between Sanders becoming the frontrunner in January and the shifted favoritism toward the GOP. As soon as it reaches late January with Sanders pulling away from Biden, the same gap occurs with Republican favoritism widening. Democratic was trading at 51% on January 15. Now that Sanders is the established frontrunner, Democratic is trading at 43%:

https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/3698/Who-will-win-the-2020-US-presidential-election

https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/3633/Who-will-win-the-2020-Democratic-presidential-nomination

I love it when this wagering stuff shows up and people with 15 minutes of background think they know what they are looking at.