Reminder: betting markets have Bernie as the *most* electable candidate.

[Awsi Dooger]

22. Correct

It's as if he somehow believes that Sanders will surge to 58% likely in those markets if Sanders is official as the nominee.

Hilarious

As I've mentioned, there is ongoing chatter on the wagering sites that Trump will become larger favorite if Sanders is indeed nominated. It is all but a certainty. Some guys began to speculate early along those lines once Sanders became the frontrunner in January. Right now obviously there is some play in the market due to uncertainty.

To be fair to the OP, Bernie is at 34% to gain the presidency right now because he still has to get through the primaries. It would be considerably higher than 34% right now if Bernie were a certainty to receive the nomination. It's like Super Bowl odds on a football team before playing the NFC Championship Game, during that brief window after the AFC Championship Game has already been decided. One is a guarantee and the other has 2 requirements instead of 1.

However, as I mentioned, the faulty thinking is that Sanders will jump to 58% after becoming the nominee. It won't be anything close to that.

People wagering on Sanders to win the presidency right now at 33 or 34% are making an asinine investment. Beyond asinine. The 57% toward the nomination is far superior value. Then if Sanders wins you take that profit and roll it over onto the presidential market, using any timeline you wish.

As I've mentioned, the 60 level is phenomenal for political wagering. I can't count how many wagers I have made in that territory. That 3-2 is a fantastic return given wagering options elsewhere. Often that 60 feels like outright theft, especially when I'm taking the GOP candidate in a state with 42+% self-identified conservatives. It's amazing how many of those races get shoved down toward 60 range when they should be 80-90 or above.