Reminder: betting markets have Bernie as the *most* electable candidate.

[TexasTowelie]

37. There is more to statistics than just plugging numbers into a formula.

The odds that are set by the betting markets are based upon the probability of each independent event occurring, not on conditional probability. If you fail to recognize and understand that difference, then this discussion isn't going anywhere.

The probability of Bernie winning the presidency as determined by the betting markets is 34%. The probability of some other candidate (including all remaining Democratic candidates. all remaining GOP candidates including Trump, and all third-party candidates) is 66%.

Think of it this way, if Trump has a 94% probability of winning the GOP nomination and a 55% chance of winning the election (both numbers from PredictIt), then Trump's odds of winning the election do not become 55/94 = 58.5%. If you use the conditional probability formula, then both Bernie and Trump would have probabilities over 58% of winning the general election if they win their respective party nominations. It is not possible for both candidates to have over a 50% of winning since the total of the two percentages cannot exceed 100%. This demonstrates that the use of the conditional probability formula is wrong.