Democratic Primaries

TexasTowelie

(125,195 posts)

39. LOL.

Fri Feb 21, 2020, 08:23 PM

Feb 2020

Thanks for demonstrating your mastery of statistics to someone that has a degree in mathematics and worked as a statistician for 25 years.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

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Reminder: betting markets have Bernie as the *most* electable candidate. [View all] DanTex Feb 2020 OP

...34% for the presidency... TheCowsCameHome Feb 2020 #1

Surely you remember mine that bird and Calvin Borel? ChubbyStar Feb 2020 #23

Remember it well Green Line Feb 2020 #35

I know. I wish someone would just rise to the top and unite us. mdelaguna Feb 2020 #25

DOHHhHH!! InAbLuEsTaTe Feb 2020 #2

That's some interesting math. LexVegas Feb 2020 #3

It's division. I divided 34 by 58. DanTex Feb 2020 #4

A meaningless calculation brooklynite Feb 2020 #57

That's just fucking ridiculous njhoneybadger Feb 2020 #62

wow using betting markets as viable data only works in a loser paradise like las vegas IMO nt msongs Feb 2020 #5

Betting markets are based upon the amount of money people wager TexasTowelie Feb 2020 #6

Actually, they are based on the odds that would get equal money to bet for and against. DanTex Feb 2020 #8

. TexasTowelie Feb 2020 #14

Uh oh, this will prove inconvenient for some folks. Garrett78 Feb 2020 #7

It's also kind of ironic that the socialist candidate is ahead in the markets, and the DanTex Feb 2020 #9

The following also run counter to popular narratives: Garrett78 Feb 2020 #12

Markets require a large number of actors to leverage information Loki Liesmith Feb 2020 #15

Comical...try again Awsi Dooger Feb 2020 #20

Causal fallacy. What's comical is that you pin the change on Sanders' rise rather than impeachment JudyM Feb 2020 #32

34% is not very inspiring. tinrobot Feb 2020 #10

It's 58.6%. 34% are the odds of both winning the nom and also going on to win the presidency. DanTex Feb 2020 #11

You are taking the odds for two completely independent events TexasTowelie Feb 2020 #16

Odds are you're 100% correct. TheCowsCameHome Feb 2020 #17

Huh? Winning the presidency and winning the nomination are not independent events. DanTex Feb 2020 #21

And that illustrates why you don't know what you are talking about. TexasTowelie Feb 2020 #24

OK, so you know about conditional probabilities, and how they are calculated. DanTex Feb 2020 #26

. TexasTowelie Feb 2020 #28

If you think that Bernie getting the nomination and Bernie becoming president are independent DanTex Feb 2020 #30

That makes you look very smart - putting in probability theory and all those equations and letters. ehrnst Feb 2020 #49

Correct Awsi Dooger Feb 2020 #22

It's an extremely straightforward calculation of conditional probability. DanTex Feb 2020 #27

You moved the goalpost! TexasTowelie Feb 2020 #29

That's not moving anything. It's a conditional probability calculation. DanTex Feb 2020 #31

. TexasTowelie Feb 2020 #33

Anyone can follow the math. It's quite simple. DanTex Feb 2020 #34

There is more to statistics than just plugging numbers into a formula. TexasTowelie Feb 2020 #37

True, but in this case, it really is that simple. DanTex Feb 2020 #38

LOL. TexasTowelie Feb 2020 #39

Again, ad hominem attacks don't change the math, which is pretty straightforward here. DanTex Feb 2020 #40

LOL. TexasTowelie Feb 2020 #41

Right now Bernie has a 34% chance and Trump a 55% chance. DanTex Feb 2020 #42

I give up. TexasTowelie Feb 2020 #43

Not "whatever statistical formula." The formula for conditional probability. DanTex Feb 2020 #44

The ever moving goalposts... ehrnst Feb 2020 #45

Yes, that's always the best indicator. Why ever gave us the idea of voting in a primary ehrnst Feb 2020 #46

But when you follow math that simply looks good to you, but isn't really accurate ehrnst Feb 2020 #47

Bernie has a 58.6% chance of winning the presidency ehrnst Feb 2020 #48

betting markets are Deero Feb 2020 #13

The 3 month swing state polling says they're wrong uponit7771 Feb 2020 #18

They don't want him to win, Sympthsical Feb 2020 #19

Maybe what you do not understand Desert grandma Feb 2020 #36

what you forget... Grasswire2 Feb 2020 #52

Sorry Grasswire 2 Desert grandma Feb 2020 #65

Your use of stats is quite wrong andym Feb 2020 #50

You are conditioning on two different events, which is why it sums to more than 100. DanTex Feb 2020 #51

That is so - you have indentified the flaw in your own approach andym Feb 2020 #53

There is no flaw, these are conditional probabilities. DanTex Feb 2020 #54

And Trump? If he wins the primary, his conditional probability is 60% of winning? andym Feb 2020 #58

That's correct. DanTex Feb 2020 #60

So your numbers don't really mean that Bernie's chances are 58% of winning after the nomination andym Feb 2020 #63

Correct. DanTex Feb 2020 #64

That doesn't make any sense muriel_volestrangler Feb 2020 #67

I corrected/updated that post using the appropriate statistics: the hypergeometric series andym Feb 2020 #68

You are not taking into account the chance of another Democrat winning the nomination muriel_volestrangler Feb 2020 #66

That is not the essence of my criticism andym Feb 2020 #69

No, this is not about the "percentage of Democrats he gains" muriel_volestrangler Feb 2020 #70

It's true that it's gambling--but your post is incorrect andym Feb 2020 #71

That's just wrong. muriel_volestrangler Feb 2020 #72

NO andym Feb 2020 #73

You do not make any sense. muriel_volestrangler Feb 2020 #74

Why only a 34% odd for the General election? OliverQ Feb 2020 #55

Because to win the GE, Bernie first has to win the primaries. DanTex Feb 2020 #56

All that sweet, sweet Russian help sure does help. Squinch Feb 2020 #59

+ 1 musette_sf Feb 2020 #61