Democratic Primaries

DanTex

(20,709 posts)

60. That's correct.

Sat Feb 22, 2020, 08:57 PM

Feb 2020

If Bernie wins the D nomination, his (Bernie's) number goes up to 58.
If Trump wins the R nomination, his (Trump's) number goes up to 60.

What you seem to be asking is what happens if both Bernie wins the D nomination and Trump wins the R nomination. Unfortunately, there's not enough information to calculate that just from the individual probabilities.

Another thing is, these numbers don't always add up to 100 because of imperfections in the market. The notable thing about Bernie's 58% is that it is higher than the comparable number for any other Democratic candidate, which means that the betting markets do not consider Bernie "unelectable", in fact, it's the opposite.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

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Reminder: betting markets have Bernie as the *most* electable candidate. [View all] DanTex Feb 2020 OP

...34% for the presidency... TheCowsCameHome Feb 2020 #1

Surely you remember mine that bird and Calvin Borel? ChubbyStar Feb 2020 #23

Remember it well Green Line Feb 2020 #35

I know. I wish someone would just rise to the top and unite us. mdelaguna Feb 2020 #25

DOHHhHH!! InAbLuEsTaTe Feb 2020 #2

That's some interesting math. LexVegas Feb 2020 #3

It's division. I divided 34 by 58. DanTex Feb 2020 #4

A meaningless calculation brooklynite Feb 2020 #57

That's just fucking ridiculous njhoneybadger Feb 2020 #62

wow using betting markets as viable data only works in a loser paradise like las vegas IMO nt msongs Feb 2020 #5

Betting markets are based upon the amount of money people wager TexasTowelie Feb 2020 #6

Actually, they are based on the odds that would get equal money to bet for and against. DanTex Feb 2020 #8

. TexasTowelie Feb 2020 #14

Uh oh, this will prove inconvenient for some folks. Garrett78 Feb 2020 #7

It's also kind of ironic that the socialist candidate is ahead in the markets, and the DanTex Feb 2020 #9

The following also run counter to popular narratives: Garrett78 Feb 2020 #12

Markets require a large number of actors to leverage information Loki Liesmith Feb 2020 #15

Comical...try again Awsi Dooger Feb 2020 #20

Causal fallacy. What's comical is that you pin the change on Sanders' rise rather than impeachment JudyM Feb 2020 #32

34% is not very inspiring. tinrobot Feb 2020 #10

It's 58.6%. 34% are the odds of both winning the nom and also going on to win the presidency. DanTex Feb 2020 #11

You are taking the odds for two completely independent events TexasTowelie Feb 2020 #16

Odds are you're 100% correct. TheCowsCameHome Feb 2020 #17

Huh? Winning the presidency and winning the nomination are not independent events. DanTex Feb 2020 #21

And that illustrates why you don't know what you are talking about. TexasTowelie Feb 2020 #24

OK, so you know about conditional probabilities, and how they are calculated. DanTex Feb 2020 #26

. TexasTowelie Feb 2020 #28

If you think that Bernie getting the nomination and Bernie becoming president are independent DanTex Feb 2020 #30

That makes you look very smart - putting in probability theory and all those equations and letters. ehrnst Feb 2020 #49

Correct Awsi Dooger Feb 2020 #22

It's an extremely straightforward calculation of conditional probability. DanTex Feb 2020 #27

You moved the goalpost! TexasTowelie Feb 2020 #29

That's not moving anything. It's a conditional probability calculation. DanTex Feb 2020 #31

. TexasTowelie Feb 2020 #33

Anyone can follow the math. It's quite simple. DanTex Feb 2020 #34

There is more to statistics than just plugging numbers into a formula. TexasTowelie Feb 2020 #37

True, but in this case, it really is that simple. DanTex Feb 2020 #38

LOL. TexasTowelie Feb 2020 #39

Again, ad hominem attacks don't change the math, which is pretty straightforward here. DanTex Feb 2020 #40

LOL. TexasTowelie Feb 2020 #41

Right now Bernie has a 34% chance and Trump a 55% chance. DanTex Feb 2020 #42

I give up. TexasTowelie Feb 2020 #43

Not "whatever statistical formula." The formula for conditional probability. DanTex Feb 2020 #44

The ever moving goalposts... ehrnst Feb 2020 #45

Yes, that's always the best indicator. Why ever gave us the idea of voting in a primary ehrnst Feb 2020 #46

But when you follow math that simply looks good to you, but isn't really accurate ehrnst Feb 2020 #47

Bernie has a 58.6% chance of winning the presidency ehrnst Feb 2020 #48

betting markets are Deero Feb 2020 #13

The 3 month swing state polling says they're wrong uponit7771 Feb 2020 #18

They don't want him to win, Sympthsical Feb 2020 #19

Maybe what you do not understand Desert grandma Feb 2020 #36

what you forget... Grasswire2 Feb 2020 #52

Sorry Grasswire 2 Desert grandma Feb 2020 #65

Your use of stats is quite wrong andym Feb 2020 #50

You are conditioning on two different events, which is why it sums to more than 100. DanTex Feb 2020 #51

That is so - you have indentified the flaw in your own approach andym Feb 2020 #53

There is no flaw, these are conditional probabilities. DanTex Feb 2020 #54

And Trump? If he wins the primary, his conditional probability is 60% of winning? andym Feb 2020 #58

That's correct. DanTex Feb 2020 #60

So your numbers don't really mean that Bernie's chances are 58% of winning after the nomination andym Feb 2020 #63

Correct. DanTex Feb 2020 #64

That doesn't make any sense muriel_volestrangler Feb 2020 #67

I corrected/updated that post using the appropriate statistics: the hypergeometric series andym Feb 2020 #68

You are not taking into account the chance of another Democrat winning the nomination muriel_volestrangler Feb 2020 #66

That is not the essence of my criticism andym Feb 2020 #69

No, this is not about the "percentage of Democrats he gains" muriel_volestrangler Feb 2020 #70

It's true that it's gambling--but your post is incorrect andym Feb 2020 #71

That's just wrong. muriel_volestrangler Feb 2020 #72

NO andym Feb 2020 #73

You do not make any sense. muriel_volestrangler Feb 2020 #74

Why only a 34% odd for the General election? OliverQ Feb 2020 #55

Because to win the GE, Bernie first has to win the primaries. DanTex Feb 2020 #56

All that sweet, sweet Russian help sure does help. Squinch Feb 2020 #59

+ 1 musette_sf Feb 2020 #61