Democratic Primaries

JaneQPublic

(7,113 posts)

10. What is the Margin of Error?

Sun Feb 23, 2020, 12:54 PM

Feb 2020

Most polls have an MOE of at least 3 percent.

Plus, political analysts say this year, the Dem nominee can beat Trump by as much as 5,000 popular votes and still lose, thanks to population gains in CA, etc. and the Electoral College.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

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49 replies

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CBS/YouGov GE Poll: Bernie beats Trump by the widest margin (+3) [View all] HerbChestnut Feb 2020 OP

national polls are meaningless lapfog_1 Feb 2020 #1

True but even for state polls - no major anti-BS ad buys yet. MH1 Feb 2020 #5

Message auto-removed Name removed Feb 2020 #6

They weren't meaningless here when Biden was at the top. Voltaire2 Feb 2020 #11

Yep. HerbChestnut Feb 2020 #13

you never heard that from me. lapfog_1 Feb 2020 #18

re: "Show me how Bernie is beating Trump in Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, Florida." thesquanderer Feb 2020 #20

you bring me lapfog_1 Feb 2020 #22

No, you asked to be shown something, so I showed you. He is at least competitive in all. thesquanderer Feb 2020 #25

show me polls where he leads outside the margin of error... lapfog_1 Feb 2020 #28

Show me polls where he loses outside the margin of error... thesquanderer Feb 2020 #30

nope... that wasn't the question posed. lapfog_1 Feb 2020 #31

re: "you can't show me a path to victory in November for Bernie." thesquanderer Feb 2020 #38

Has Sanders been fully vetted? n/t zackymilly Feb 2020 #33

Oh look a Gish Gallop. Voltaire2 Feb 2020 #41

I had to look that one up. Thanks for expanding my vocabulary. May I get an answer now? nt zackymilly Feb 2020 #42

Unless they show a different candidate on top. And then they're all the rage. Garrett78 Feb 2020 #29

Yes swing state polls are what counts. However, part of this contest is about preceptions, and if totodeinhere Feb 2020 #32

Don't worry, he's leading trump in many swing states, and better then other candidates in those. jmg257 Feb 2020 #47

Message auto-removed Name removed Feb 2020 #2

None of those numbers are good. Turin_C3PO Feb 2020 #3

Once it's clear Bernie will be the nominee, he'll have a better platform to get his... HerbChestnut Feb 2020 #15

IMO that number is very good. Neon Gods Feb 2020 #16

I sure hope Joe's numbers step up. I dread a Bernie nomination. n/t zackymilly Feb 2020 #34

Only the electoral college matters... JenniferJuniper Feb 2020 #4

It's so damn depressing that we live in a country where the margins can be this close! nt LAS14 Feb 2020 #7

That is a national poll and he is doing badly...they all are but Biden has already withstood the GOP Demsrule86 Feb 2020 #8

+ 1 musette_sf Feb 2020 #40

Thank you Demsrule86 Feb 2020 #49

3% is not enough to guarantee a win-- Hillary was leading by at least that much throughout 2016 andym Feb 2020 #9

What is the Margin of Error? JaneQPublic Feb 2020 #10

Isn't that a college based poll? wisteria Feb 2020 #12

don't know, but what does it matter? (n/t) thesquanderer Feb 2020 #19

No. LenaW Feb 2020 #27

That's one. Oh and welcome to DU. nt zackymilly Feb 2020 #36

Their methodology is available. LenaW Feb 2020 #39

The pundits are scared of the word "socialism" Neon Gods Feb 2020 #14

After the GOP drops $2 billion on Bernie's head it will be more than the pundits who are terrified. HarlanPepper Feb 2020 #44

How many Republicans are they polling? Polls and primaries can be ratfucked... CousinIT Feb 2020 #17

The only difference is the number of undecideds. TwilightZone Feb 2020 #21

+3? TheCowsCameHome Feb 2020 #23

Well, Bloomberg is at (-3) so... HerbChestnut Feb 2020 #24

Trump should be down by at least ten TheCowsCameHome Feb 2020 #26

Look for Bernie's numbers to get even better as more and more people jump on the bandwagon totodeinhere Feb 2020 #35

With that margin, he would probably lose the electoral college. RDANGELO Feb 2020 #37

I don't like the look of any of these polls democrattotheend Feb 2020 #43

Not very impressive for any of them. HarlanPepper Feb 2020 #45

We're so screwed! tandem5 Feb 2020 #46

I wouldn't put much to it. rockfordfile Feb 2020 #48