Reminder: betting markets have Bernie as the *most* electable candidate.

[andym]

71. It's true that it's gambling--but your post is incorrect

It doesn't matter whether its voters themselves or opinions held by bettors of how people will vote--in the end they are predicting how the population of voters will behave. The hypergeometric series (a very stripped down version of what pollsters do) does apply because the bettors should be trying to predict these very numbers (a rational bettor should look at the polls etc like 538 does and then place bets accordingly) and that should inform their bets.

The basic problem is that conditional probability that you and Dantex are promoting doesn't hold because you neglect to account for the possibility that bettors in the general election pool may not choose to believe that Bernie would win the general election even when his nomination odds are at 100%. That proportionality is based on the false assumption that all the bettors placing their bets on Bernie to win the nomination would naturally think he would win the election too-- no justification for that.