Reminder: betting markets have Bernie as the *most* electable candidate.

[muriel_volestrangler]

72. That's just wrong.

"The basic problem is that conditional probability that you and Dantex are promoting doesn't hold because you neglect to account for the possibility that bettors in the general election pool may not choose to believe that Bernie would win the general election even when his nomination odds are at 100%."

Wrong. And, frankly, that's gobbledegook. The bettors, as a group, say there is 65% chance Sanders will win the nomination. They say there's 37% chance he'll become president - which is, basically, dependent on him winning the nomination. That 37% figure is neither "0%" nor "65%", so it clearly does mean that some of them think he would win the general election "when his nomination odds are at 100%", ie if he's nominated, and some of them don't.

" That proportionality is based on the false assumption that all the bettors placing their bets on Bernie to win the nomination would naturally think he would win the election too"

No. If that were the case, then the figures would be equal.