Democratic Primaries
In reply to the discussion: Please tell me why I shouldn't be offended. [View all]louis c
(8,652 posts)The 2020 election is very simple. The Electoral College is all that matters. Having a candidate, like Warren or Sanders feels good, after all I'm a Socialist at heart. But those days of idealism have long past me by. I'm a pragmatist now.
Let's look at 2018. Few, if any, Our Revolution candidates beat a Republican. Oh sure, they toppled long standing Democratic incumbents or won open seats that were Democratic retirements, but they did not get us our majority. What got us our majority are moderate, practical Democrats who unseated the incumbent Republicans or won open Republican seats. You can use that reasoning in the General Election in 2020. Who gives a fuck if we win California by 4 million votes instead of 3 million. Or New York by 3 million instead of 2 million. We're fucked if we lose Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan.
This is the most consequential election in my life time. It's probably the second most important election in the history of the world with the first being Germany's election in 1932.
Did you read what Obama warned about? What do you think he was referring to? Sanders and Warren.
The polls have demonstrated that Biden has the best chance to beat Trump in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan. Maybe the polls change. Maybe Kamala can eke out a victory by being the best bet in Florida, providing another path. But, unfortunately for all of us, issues don't mean shit in the General Election. It's about feelings and that's because the 10% of the electorate that actually decide the Presidential Election are the least informed and want to remain that way. 45% of the voters are like us. We read, watch, study and can recite chapter and verse about the constitution and the bill of rights. Then, there is Trump's base. That's about 40% who are misinformed or ill informed and you couldn't convince them to change their minds no matter how hard you try. Then, there's 5% who vote out of greed. They are the wealthy and well connected. They vote for the President because he reduces their taxes or de-regulates their industry. They have no moral compass. They laugh at us when we talk politics, like it's some kind of inside joke that we're not in on. That leaves the uninformed who vote on feelings. "I just like the guy or gal" or "I just can't stand her or him". If you ask them why, they have no idea. They go to work, drive their kids to school, watch silly TV shows and then vote on their feelings. They feel Biden is a nice guy and is non-threatening. No talk of Socialism (which they are deathly afraid of but have no idea what it means). They are the folks who favor the Affordable Care Act, but oppose Obama Care. They vote in the General election, but not in the Primary. They could be registered in either party but are most likely Independent.
The only way to beat Trump is to have a candidate that appeals to that middle 10%. They don't read position papers and don't even engage in election talk until after Labor Day on election year, and most, not until 2 weeks before the election.
I don't want a candidate that runs up the score in Maryland, Massachusetts, Connecticut, California and New York. I want a candidate that can win an election, not change the world.
I referred earlier to the Election in Germany in 1932. I don't need to remind you of who won that election. but few people know that the person who lost that election was Otto Wels and he lost because too many people peeled votes away with more minor parties and one of those parties sided with the Nazis to form the government. In retrospect, every German who was against Hitler should have sided with Wels.
Joe Biden is my Otto Wels, only this time, Hitler loses.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden