Please tell me why I shouldn't be offended.

[Buzz cook]

184. In general I agree with you sentiment.

Winning is the most important thing. I disagree with your conclusion that Biden is the most likely to beat Trump.

Biden has name recognition and is a favorite of the inside the beltway media. Those are both important points in his favor.
In 2008 Clinton had the greater name recognition and again in 2016. What she lacked was a friendly media.

In 2008 Obama played to the DC villagers and they elected him the anti-Clinton so he was able to divide media opinion enough to get the nomination.
As we know the people hated Bush and by extension the republicans by that time that Dennis Kucinich could have won the presidency.

At this time 20 months from the election name recognition is not as important, the long campaign period will insure that by the time of the convention the nominee will have solid name recognition.

The favor of the villagers is now the prize. Just as the media doomed Clinton's 2008 campaign they did the same to Gore in 2000.
As I said Biden is a media darling, but the media has turned on him in the past and I wouldn't be surprised if they do in the future.

However the media has changed somewhat. they are no longer monolithic with a few Gene Lyons and Molly Ivins thrown in for flavor. There is now a democratic party leaning media, even if it isn't as large as we might like. That media can feed positive narratives into the mainstream no matter who the democratic candidate is.
While Biden is still the favored candidate of the media that is not as strong an advantage as it would have been just four years ago.

One of the things that we've learned over the last few election cycles is turning out the base is paramount to winning elections. Its one of the things conservatives have excelled at for years.
A major part of turning out the base is how attractive the candidate is to activists and young people. Obama had that Sanders has that. I live in a caucus state and we Clinton supporters were swamped by Sanders people. I failed to be a delegate to the county convention for the first time in years.
While I still don't support Sanders for other reasons it can't be said that He can't get people into the voting booths.
I don't think Biden can generate that kind of excitement in the base.

Voter suppression is still with us. It helped kill Gore in 2000, Kerry in 2004 and Clinton in 2016. But it is getting better, we are winning in the courts in North Carolina and elsewhere and ballot measure in Florida. If we can keep that fight up and keep winning that waters down Biden's media advantage as a rising tide lifts all boats.

Centrism isn't as important as it once was. One of the reasons Biden is popular with the media is because he's viewed as a centrist willing to buck his party and vote with the republicans. As I noted he's done that on more than one occasion.
But what is centrist? Elizabeth Warren has made several proposals and all of them poll well with a majority of American voters, both democratic and republican. The same can be said of most other candidates that are called leftist.
Many of the proposals are considered leftist because the overton window as moved shockingly right and would have been mainstream in the 50s, 60s, and 70s.
So Biden's "advantage" of being a centrist is not as strong as it once was.

Remember it was healthcare that gave democrats wins in 2018. That topic cost us the house in 2010 and further losses in 2014, 2016. Now it is close to becoming a third rail. Leftist doesn't mean what it used to.
And where will Biden be in the healthcare debate? Even if he only proposes just fixing a ACA, it will still be a repudiation of not only Obama but also himself.

Biden's advantages as a candidate are not as overarching as the once were. At the same time Trump is becoming less formidable as we watch.
You are right that he or any republican will always have a core of supporters, I put that at the inevitable 25% dead enders plus 10 to 15% reflexive republicans. Trump continues to lose ground with almost every demographic and it will take even greater attempts at voter suppression to keep him viable. I see 2020 as being more like 2008 than 2000.

Finally imho the most important election of our lifetime was 2000 and we lost that. Every failure we've had can be traced back to that one.
I'd also like to remind you that there was another important election in 1932, FDR vs Hoover. An elitist leftist with an annoying wife

I think we face an election where we can afford to nominate the best person for the job. Imo that is Warren and not Biden.

Thank you for taking the time to reply. In 2016 I got used to being jumped on by Sanders supporters and now it seems its Biden supporters turn to put the boots to me. Your reply was a refreshing change.