Bernie Sanders will win South Carolina primary, George Washington University school says [View all]

[Uncle Joe]

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To make their latest projection, according to a press release, GSPM researchers used two election-prediction models. Their "momentum" and "original" model each consider three factors: Twitter mentions, cash on hand and endorsements.

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The momentum model, which also takes into account the results from the Nevada caucuses last Saturday, found that Sanders will win South Carolina handily, with 28.4% of the vote share. Biden is projected to finish in second place with 17.5% of the vote.

Former South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg, with 12.9%, and U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, with 11.6%, are the only other candidates in double digits in the momentum model.

The original model suggests a far tighter race. While Sanders remains at the head of the pack, he is projected to garner only 19.7% of the vote while Biden finishes with 15.1%, Warren with 12.3% and Buttigieg with 11.2%.

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https://www.greenvilleonline.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/02/28/bernie-sanders-south-carolina-primary-george-washington-school-elections-2020/4905120002/

Don't know whether or which model will be accurate but here is how they called Nevada.

WASHINGTON (Feb. 21, 2020)—Sen. Bernie Sanders is projected to run away with the 2020 Nevada caucuses, according to the latest projection from the George Washington University Graduate School of Political Management (GSPM). Former Vice President Joe Biden, Sen. Elizabeth Warren, and former Mayor Pete Buttigieg are competing for second place, and they are all expected to finish well behind the Vermont senator.

GSPM researchers created two models to forecast the Nevada primary. The first, or “basic,” model is identical to those used to predict the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary. The second, or “momentum,” model takes into account the results from the New Hampshire primary in order to examine the effect of previous elections on future contests.

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The basic model projects a sweeping Sanders victory with 30.6% of the vote. Biden is expected to finish a distant second with 17.5% of the vote, with Warren (16.6%) and Buttigieg (14.1%) following close behind. The momentum model also predicts a comfortable Sanders win (29.2%) but slots Buttigieg into second place (16.4%), followed by Biden (15.1%) and Warren (14.5%).

Both models consider three factors: Twitter mentions, cash on hand and endorsements. The amount of Twitter mentions reflects the attention a candidate is garnering among the wider electorate as well as the effect important opinion leaders have on the online political discussion. Cash on hand quantifies the financial position of a candidate and demonstrates the level of donor commitment. The number of endorsements is a relative indication of a candidate’s strength within the party. The momentum model also takes the results of previous elections into account. A complete description of the model’s methodology can be found online.

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https://mediarelations.gwu.edu/sanders-favored-win-nevada-caucuses-gw-election-prediction-model-finds