Democratic Primaries

Progressive2020

(713 posts)

13. Not Sure

Fri Feb 28, 2020, 08:30 PM

Feb 2020

I do not trust ANY of the numbers I have seen on South Carolina. Not the pro-Bernie OR the pro-Biden numbers. My College Social Statistics course taught me to be skeptical about the validity of any one study or poll. The proof will be in the pudding on Saturday.

I am going on a gut instinct rather than polls. My feeling is that Biden will win South Carolina and Bernie will come in as a pretty strong second. If Joe comes out of that Primary with a big lead, it will energize his campaign. Then I think that it will be a battle on Super Tuesday between Biden and Sanders.

The only wild card there is Bloomberg, who might siphon votes off of Biden and benefit Bernie. In either case, I am fine though. Both Bernie and Biden are in my top three, and I will fight for whoever gets the Democratic nomination.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

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Bernie Sanders will win South Carolina primary, George Washington University school says [View all] Uncle Joe Feb 2020 OP

This message was self-deleted by its author democratisphere Feb 2020 #1

Correct, Bernie Sanders! nt USALiberal Feb 2020 #9

This message was self-deleted by its author democratisphere Feb 2020 #14

LOL NJCher Feb 2020 #15

:-) USALiberal Feb 2020 #19

Nope. Way off. Biden already declared the winner. brush Feb 2020 #60

Operation chaos voters will be a factor, imo. Limbaugh has been pushing them blm Feb 2020 #2

Bookmarking. TexasTowelie Feb 2020 #3

Hah. Just did the same thing. George II Feb 2020 #10

It barely made it 24 hours. nt TexasTowelie Feb 2020 #71

"Twitter mentions" TwilightZone Feb 2020 #4

And "cash on hand"! Are they standing outside the polls with a fistful of dollars? George II Feb 2020 #12

Cash on hand would make more sense for national projections. TwilightZone Feb 2020 #20

Yes, but not the night before a primary. George II Feb 2020 #21

The same model predicted Biden would win Iowa with 24%. TwilightZone Feb 2020 #27

It'd b funny if it happened mtron32 Feb 2020 #5

I feel the same way mtron. Uncle Joe Feb 2020 #7

It would be nice. MuseRider Feb 2020 #38

I think this is a very questionable theory Cal Carpenter Feb 2020 #6

I agree. Exit polls are better variables than cash on hand, endorsements, etc. NCjack Feb 2020 #68

Twitter mentions, cash on hand and endorsements TwilightZone Feb 2020 #8

Considering voters my age do very little with Twitter. LiberalFighter Feb 2020 #66

um, I am skeptical of this new model. bluewater Feb 2020 #11

Not Sure Progressive2020 Feb 2020 #13

finally NJCher Feb 2020 #30

Thanks Progressive2020 Feb 2020 #31

Bloomberg isn't on the ballot in SC. TwilightZone Feb 2020 #42

Yeah Progressive2020 Feb 2020 #45

Agreed. TwilightZone Feb 2020 #46

He sure isn't. DemocratSinceBirth Feb 2020 #49

right wing repubs sweep our revolution into first place. yeah right nt msongs Feb 2020 #16

I'm thinkin' Joe has the edge in SC... wouldn't be surprised tho if Bernie pulled off the upset. InAbLuEsTaTe Feb 2020 #17

They used that model on Iowa Bumperstickers Feb 2020 #18

It predicted that Biden would win, with 24% TwilightZone Feb 2020 #22

This message was self-deleted by its author Uncle Joe Feb 2020 #26

Message auto-removed Name removed Feb 2020 #35

The same model predicted Biden would win Iowa with 24%. Oops. TwilightZone Feb 2020 #23

He may. Lots of Republicans voting for him evertonfc Feb 2020 #24

I remember the words of Deep Throat in "All the President's Men" Just_Vote_Dem Feb 2020 #37

Bookmarking...nt SidDithers Feb 2020 #25

Okay..set those high expectations. I will be sure to bump this thread up helpisontheway Feb 2020 #28

I think this will be a big Biden win . But Sanders sure would be big news if he did .. lunasun Feb 2020 #29

Message auto-removed Name removed Feb 2020 #32

This message was self-deleted by its author TwilightZone Feb 2020 #41

I bet it was supposed to be Steyer. TwilightZone Feb 2020 #44

Bookmarking... revmclaren Feb 2020 #33

Ok, tomorrow we shall find out. IluvPitties Feb 2020 #34

If this prediction is true, Bloomberg should be the nominee... Moderateguy Feb 2020 #36

I bet it's supposed to be Steyer. TwilightZone Feb 2020 #43

People sure like their models. David__77 Feb 2020 #39

Message auto-removed Name removed Feb 2020 #40

thanks Uncle Joe... myohmy2 Feb 2020 #47

Bookmarking DemocratSinceBirth Feb 2020 #48

Hell of a model. DemocratSinceBirth Feb 2020 #50

Lol squirecam Feb 2020 #62

Good call still_one Feb 2020 #51

... NurseJackie Feb 2020 #52

........... still_one Feb 2020 #54

That model didn't age well. DemocratSinceBirth Feb 2020 #69

+++ still_one Feb 2020 #70

. . . Habibi Feb 2020 #55

really? / CNN Biden wins South Carolina Botany Feb 2020 #53

ITS back to the drawing board for these researchers. riversedge Feb 2020 #56

They had Biden winning Iowa with the same model. TwilightZone Feb 2020 #67

Message auto-removed Name removed Feb 2020 #57

Well, this one didn't age well! peggysue2 Feb 2020 #58

I think I'll wait a while before I kick this....oh what the hell..n/t zackymilly Feb 2020 #59

Hahahaha OhZone Feb 2020 #61

LOL!! I concur!! blue-wave Feb 2020 #65

Looks like it didn't work out that way Joinfortmill Feb 2020 #63

Told you I was bookmarking this...BIDEN WINS SC!!! revmclaren Feb 2020 #64

GWU has great rowing teams. I wonder if they will soon be back-'paddling' this. n/t zackymilly Feb 2020 #72

oops: George II Mar 2020 #73

"Models that consider Twitter mentions" basically count Russian bots dalton99a Mar 2020 #80

LOL! MineralMan Mar 2020 #74

Back to the ole drawing board! honest.abe Mar 2020 #75

kick lapucelle Mar 2020 #76

im from the future and i have a message.... samnsara Mar 2020 #77

Oops. The Velveteen Ocelot Mar 2020 #78

bloomberg should remain in and he and warren continue to attack sanders is more likely beachbumbob Mar 2020 #79