Democratic Primaries

BlueWI

(1,736 posts)

36. You selectively left factors out.

Sat Feb 29, 2020, 06:41 PM

Feb 2020

White voters' susceptibility to racist and nativist rhetoric, which made a clear difference in Florida in particular

Increase in black voter support for the Republican nominee (2% increase over 2012)

Lower enthusiasm for the Democratic ticket among black voters in two key cities: Detroit and Milwaukee

Voter suppression

Another factor that actually helped Clinton: increased support for the Libertarian Party by voters that would likely have voted Republican

There are always multiple factors in predictive science, but when there's so much preference for scapegoating Sanders voters, larger lessons are missed.

Support who you want in the primaries of course, but to misread factors influencing the 2016 vote does not benefit Democrats.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

Edit history

Please sign in to view edit histories.

Recommendations

0 members have recommended this reply (displayed in chronological order):

36 replies

= new reply since forum marked as read

Highlight:

Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball: Sanders in the General Swings Electoral College to Trump [View all] wyldwolf Feb 2020 OP

wyldwolf, thanks for posting this! :) Sloumeau Feb 2020 #1

This prediction is dumb OliverQ Feb 2020 #2

WI and PA don't change. They're toss-ups in both scenarios. TwilightZone Feb 2020 #3

Texas has registered over 1 million new voters OliverQ Feb 2020 #4

"most of whom are younger Dems. " TwilightZone Feb 2020 #8

Texas is a fossil fuel state. rockfordfile Feb 2020 #28

Sabato is a very smart guy and a straight shooter. honest.abe Feb 2020 #5

Doesn't mean he can't be wrong. OliverQ Feb 2020 #6

No one is arguing otherwise. LanternWaste Feb 2020 #17

He does seem to lean right Tweedy Feb 2020 #9

A bit but he is mostly impartial. honest.abe Feb 2020 #10

Certainly Mr. Sabato thinks he is impartial Tweedy Feb 2020 #11

You should educate yourself on how polling actually works. W_HAMILTON Feb 2020 #21

the prevalence of cell phones and the decrease in landlines has impacted polling Tweedy Feb 2020 #23

Most reputable pollsters use random digit dialing... W_HAMILTON Feb 2020 #24

Not mine Tweedy Feb 2020 #25

really? Celerity Feb 2020 #32

Hmmm Florida goes to Trump if Bernie is in the general? blue-wave Feb 2020 #7

Message auto-removed Name removed Feb 2020 #12

The path ahead bucolic_frolic Feb 2020 #13

This Larry Sabato? Nanjeanne Feb 2020 #14

Sabato didn't account for 1 out of every 10 Sanders supporters not voting for the Dem nominee wyldwolf Feb 2020 #16

Nor did he account for Russian interference peggysue2 Feb 2020 #19

Just admit you got schooled by the last post. BlueWI Feb 2020 #27

The only one schooled here is you wyldwolf Feb 2020 #29

You selectively left factors out. BlueWI Feb 2020 #36

Shocker...nt helpisontheway Feb 2020 #15

Nonsense. Laelth Feb 2020 #18

I thought that in 2016 gollygee Feb 2020 #30

Too many Democrats stayed home in 2016. Laelth Feb 2020 #31

I sincerely hope you're right gollygee Feb 2020 #33

Trump's going to get 60 million votes. Laelth Feb 2020 #35

Certain down ticket doom. On that, no crystal ball needed. oasis Feb 2020 #20

No crystal ball needed to see how bad Sanders will be for the Democratic Party if he's the highplainsdem Feb 2020 #22

founded on polling 11 months away from election day dumptrump1 Feb 2020 #26

Joe Biden is the strongest general election candidate Gothmog Feb 2020 #34