Democratic Primaries

bluewater

(5,420 posts) Sun Mar 1, 2020, 10:59 AM Mar 2020

Huh, despite SC, it seems Sanders is still the frontrunner! [View all]

Huh.

Sanders 57
Biden 51
Buttigieg 26
Warren 8
Klobuchar 7

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-primary-elections/delegate-count

Looking at Nevada and SC we can see why this is.

While Biden had a great SC Primary getting 77% of the assigned delegates, Sanders also had a big win in Nevada where he got 66% of the delegates.

Nevada:

Sanders 24 <--- 66% of Nevada Delegates.
Biden 9
Buttigieg 3

SC:

Biden 36 <-- 77% of SC delegates
Sanders 11

What does this mean going forward?

Well, Biden will obviously do well in states where African Americans make up 50-60% of the total primary voters.
In more demographically balanced states, his advantage will be less.

Sanders seems to over perform with Latinx voters, as shown by his win in Nevada. The SC primary exit polls show that Latinos made up only 2% of the voters yesterday, and that affected Sanders totals there.

On Super Tuesday, the electorates in the primary rich states of Texas and California more closely resemble Nevada than South Carolina, so expect Sanders to do well there.

But Arkansas, Alabama and North Carolina will have a large % of voters be African American, so Biden should perform well in those states.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/winning-super-tuesday-without-winning-states/ar-BB10AC07

Overall, I expect that Sanders will increase his lead in delegate on Super Tuesday significantly.

Time will tell.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

71 replies

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Huh, despite SC, it seems Sanders is still the frontrunner! [View all] bluewater Mar 2020 OP

Momentum shift. IluvPitties Mar 2020 #1

I agree that Biden will do a lot better than the polls, especially in Cali, Blue_true Mar 2020 #7

Exactly. Voters now understand that something is possible that didn't seem Mike 03 Mar 2020 #12

Maybe but there might not be enough time between now and Tuesday. totodeinhere Mar 2020 #15

Fade the Bern bucolic_frolic Mar 2020 #2

Enjoy it while you can! MrsCoffee Mar 2020 #3

I tend to agree, especially in Cali and Texas. Blue_true Mar 2020 #10

Ditto. Lots of last minute supporters holding out for the momentum of SC victory. onetexan Mar 2020 #24

One overlooked factor is the NPP non vote in the presidential primary. Blue_true Mar 2020 #35

What is NPP? Agree re: NV Latinos. I saw on TV that a number of them interviewed said BS was the onetexan Mar 2020 #37

NPP in Cali is "No Party Preference". Blue_true Mar 2020 #43

Thank you for clarification and excellent explanation! One more qstn: Is NPP same as Independent? onetexan Mar 2020 #45

NPP is the same as Indy. In Florida, Indies can't pull a party ballot, they can Blue_true Mar 2020 #50

I didn't realise California was a closed Primary, but delighted it is. I have never understood OnDoutside Mar 2020 #56

Someone pointed out, the Democratic Party will allow California NPP voters Blue_true Mar 2020 #69

rofl greenjar_01 Mar 2020 #4

The question isn't really if Bernie will have the delegate lead... tarheelsunc Mar 2020 #5

I believe that Biden is going to surprise in California and win Texas easily. Blue_true Mar 2020 #6

Biden needs 15% in CA. squirecam Mar 2020 #9

The problem for Bernie in California is that his lead is being Blue_true Mar 2020 #18

Bernie won the Asian vote in Nevada. I don't see why it should be any different in California. totodeinhere Mar 2020 #19

There is a very large AA vote in both Cali and Texas, Blue_true Mar 2020 #23

Well we will probably see soon enough which one of us was correct and which one of us was totodeinhere Mar 2020 #26

It is only 2 days away now. nt Blue_true Mar 2020 #28

I agree. I do not see any mention of Bloomberg on this thread underpants Mar 2020 #39

One person posted on DU that AA turnout in 2016 General was down by 1 million. Blue_true Mar 2020 #49

I see the turnout bing down as mostly due to the media underpants Mar 2020 #54

Weren't the SC turnout close to 2008 levels? Blue_true Mar 2020 #70

Bernie will lead after Super Tuesday due to CA. squirecam Mar 2020 #8

What's interesting is that Sanders totals did not decline much bluewater Mar 2020 #13

As of today squirecam Mar 2020 #17

Yes. they LITERALLY Updated that in the last 30 minutes it seems. bluewater Mar 2020 #20

If Super Tuesday has mixed results, the forecast should continue to increase squirecam Mar 2020 #22

If Super Tuesday produces mixed results or Biden behind by a couple hundred delegates, the advantage Blue_true Mar 2020 #71

So I assume you now acknowledge that Pete won Iowa dsc Mar 2020 #11

Of course he did. But it's been downhill for Pete since then. bluewater Mar 2020 #16

the vast majority of Sanders supporters were saying otherwise dsc Mar 2020 #21

I wish Buttigieg was doing better. Warren too. bluewater Mar 2020 #30

Indeed they are. More voters have voted for Biden than for BS. lapucelle Mar 2020 #34

yeah... but there is this thing coming up... it's called... bluewater Mar 2020 #40

There is this thing coming up called the convention, and if no candidate has the majority lapucelle Mar 2020 #48

But of the small hispanic population in SC, a large % went for Biden Vivienne235729 Mar 2020 #14

Hispanics in Florida, across the sub-ethnicities are more moderate Blue_true Mar 2020 #25

In southern Florida yes jimfields33 Mar 2020 #29

I live in north central Florida. Hispanics in my area are very much moderate. Blue_true Mar 2020 #38

I believe Biden will do very well on Tuesday. FloridaBlues Mar 2020 #27

You needed to post this twice...six delegate lead...and underwater on the popular vote...the Demsrule86 Mar 2020 #31

Time will Tell. And THAT time is THIS Tuesday! bluewater Mar 2020 #33

Joe's winning the popular vote. More people have voted for Biden than for BS. lapucelle Mar 2020 #32

um, the nominee is selected based on delegate totals. lol bluewater Mar 2020 #36

Yes, I know. And if no candidate has the majority of delegates on the first ballot, lapucelle Mar 2020 #42

So, now you are saying popular vote totals don't mean anything? Ok lol bluewater Mar 2020 #44

That's not what I'm saying. That's what YOU said. lapucelle Mar 2020 #51

Oh, so you DROPPED the whole popular vote thing. I see. bluewater Mar 2020 #55

Wait...what? It's the first thing on a three item list. lapucelle Mar 2020 #57

Seems like a disjointed list. What does the popular vote after 4 states have to do with anything? bluewater Mar 2020 #58

Pivot away from it by listing it as fact along with two other facts and an inference lapucelle Mar 2020 #59

Yep, definitely pivoting away and just tacking it onto a list. bluewater Mar 2020 #60

And you've gotten your answer more than once. lapucelle Mar 2020 #61

You think the popular vote after the first 4 states MATTERS at the Convention? Um, no. bluewater Mar 2020 #63

If BS wins the majority of the total number of delegates at the end of the primaries, lapucelle Mar 2020 #52

Without a doubt, Bernie is going to rack up delegates on Super Tuesday. Laelth Mar 2020 #41

Wow! Biden is only 6 delegates behind? OhZone Mar 2020 #46

The key is who is better at the anti trump vote empedocles Mar 2020 #47

+1, Sanders 3 month swing state numbers vs Trump are worse than Biden's, socialism doesn't help uponit7771 Mar 2020 #62

When was the last time a Dem won South Carolina in a Presidential election? brutus smith Mar 2020 #53

Doesn't matter. A candidate in November will run in FIFTY states. George II Mar 2020 #64

Yes, but people seem to be gripping on this talking point for comfort. (nt) ehrnst Mar 2020 #68

The record of SC primary Dem winners who went on to get the nomination would be more relevant. ehrnst Mar 2020 #67

All it really means is that it's not over yet. n/t Odoreida Mar 2020 #65

Interesting, coming out of Iowa Sanders was behind 12 to 14 (14%) but he declared himself... George II Mar 2020 #66